Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MSFT is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$757.59
Method range
$73.30 – $757.59
median $543.58
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $757.59 | +81.82% |
| Exit multiple | $535.20 | +28.45% |
| Analyst target | $551.96 | +32.47% |
| Graham number | $73.30 | -82.41% |
- Forward DCF$757.59
- Exit multiple$535.20
- Analyst target$551.96
- Graham number$73.30
Stock price
$416.67
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.13
3Y FCF CAGR
6.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$39.69
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
39.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -949.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
6.8%
Your model implies
39.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 7% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | 35.7% | 34.8% | 33.7% | 32.6% | 31.3% |
| 9.0% | 38.6% | 37.7% | 36.9% | 35.9% | 34.8% |
| 10.0% | 41.3% | 40.5% | 39.7% | 38.9% | 38.0% |
| 11.0% | 43.8% | 43.1% | 42.4% | 41.7% | 40.9% |
| 12.0% | 46.2% | 45.6% | 45.0% | 44.3% | 43.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$81.9B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.09
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Microsoft (MSFT) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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