Motorola Solutions (MSI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.18), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MSI sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 16, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.18in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.18 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.16% | +0.17pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.43% | +2.19pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 24 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $1.21 |
| Per-event yield | 0.26% |
| Annualized yield | 1.18% |
| Previously paid | Mar 20, 2026 ($1.21) |
| Last record date | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 15, 2026 |
MSI Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Motorola Solutions (MSI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.21 | -0.02% | $459.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.44% | -4.28% | |
| Q4 | $1.21 | -0.22% | $364.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +2.53% | |
| Q3 | $1.09 | -0.41% | $481.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.69% | -1.90% | |
| Q2 | $1.09 | -0.36% | $413.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.22% | -0.27% | |
| Q1 | $1.09 | 0.23% | $414.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.35% | +2.34% | |
| Q4 | $1.09 | 0.32% | $469.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.11% | +0.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.98 | -0.12% | $439.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.49% | +0.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.98 | -1.58% | $376.71 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.78% | +3.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.98 | 0.25% | $343.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.35% | +1.88% | |
| Q4 | $0.98 | -0.29% | $326.94 | 24 | no | yes | -6.07% | -4.71% | |
| Q3 | $0.88 | 0.22% | $280.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.16% | -0.01% | |
| Q2 | $0.88 | -0.31% | $279.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +1.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.88 | 0.82% | $261.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.03% | +4.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.88 | 0.02% | $267.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.87% | -3.28% | |
| Q3 | $0.79 | -1.04% | $246.08 | >30 | no | no | -9.11% | -3.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.79 | 0.08% | $202.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.67% | +3.94% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | 0.01% | $221.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.96% | +5.00% | |
| Q4 | $0.79 | -0.76% | $263.29 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.22% | -0.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.71 | 0.12% | $241.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.94% | -2.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -0.51% | $212.31 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.64% | -0.14% |
- -4.28%
- +2.53%
- -1.90%
- -0.27%
- +2.34%
- +0.24%
- +0.85%
- +3.30%
- +1.88%
- -4.71%
- -0.01%
- +1.63%
- +4.36%
- -3.28%
- -3.02%
- +3.94%
- +5.00%
- -0.34%
- -2.28%
- -0.14%
MSI Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
MSI Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MSI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $242.00
- After-tax dividend
- $157.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$91.83
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$65.47
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.07%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~3.6%
MSI Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MSI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MSI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.33% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.39% | |
| -3.02% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.31% | |
| -4.71% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.26% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.