Nordson (NDSN) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.14), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NDSN sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 18, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.14in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.14 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.42% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.03% | +1.00pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.82 |
| Per-event yield | 0.31% |
| Annualized yield | 1.11% |
| Previously paid | Mar 19, 2026 ($0.82) |
| Last record date | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 3, 2026 |
NDSN Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Nordson (NDSN). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.82 | -1.15% | $267.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.12% | -0.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.82 | -0.28% | $236.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.35% | +3.35% | |
| Q3 | $0.82 | -0.42% | $223.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.97% | +2.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.78 | -0.56% | $214.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.09% | +0.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | -1.41% | $208.57 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.55% | -0.59% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | 0.19% | $209.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.93% | -3.99% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -0.53% | $257.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.66% | -2.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | -0.13% | $271.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.21% | -13.76% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -0.58% | $265.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +2.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | -0.23% | $251.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.07% | +5.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -0.29% | $232.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.48% | +4.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.65 | 0.15% | $217.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.80% | +1.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.65 | -0.27% | $242.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.24% | -8.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | -0.57% | $236.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.50% | +0.61% | |
| Q3 | $0.65 | -1.78% | $244.30 | >30 | no | no | -8.78% | -4.90% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | 0.75% | $205.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.39% | +6.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | 0.08% | $228.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.88% | -0.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -1.25% | $248.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.97% | +3.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | 0.35% | $230.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.08% | +3.94% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.01% | $201.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.86% | +10.02% |
- -0.66%
- +3.35%
- +2.11%
- +0.73%
- -0.59%
- -3.99%
- -2.43%
- -13.76%
- +2.19%
- +5.04%
- +4.70%
- +1.93%
- -8.95%
- +0.61%
- -4.90%
- +6.41%
- -0.82%
- +3.49%
- +3.94%
- +10.02%
NDSN Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
NDSN Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NDSN's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $164.00
- After-tax dividend
- $106.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$53.51
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$53.09
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.10%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~5.0%
NDSN Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NDSN ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NDSN (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.19% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.25% | |
| -4.90% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.31% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.