NI dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
NiSource (NI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.44), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NI sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 31, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.44
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.44 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.67% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 68% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.65% | +1.10pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 18 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
Dividend
$0.30
Per-event yield
0.67%
Annualized yield
2.66%
Previously paid
Jul 31, 2026 ($0.30)
Last record date
Jul 31, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 20, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for NiSource (NI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.30 | -0.71% | $45.07 | >30 | no | no | -1.82% | — | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.06% | $48.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.32% | -1.78% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.59% | $44.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.41% | +2.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | 0.19% | $42.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +4.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -1.20% | $42.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.73% | +0.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.78% | $39.72 | 6 | no | yes | -4.98% | +2.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -1.61% | $37.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.01% | +2.92% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | -0.77% | $35.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.56% | +0.38% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.57% | $31.42 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.83% | -0.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.29% | $27.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +3.88% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -2.28% | $26.35 | 13 | no | yes | -5.88% | -3.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.60% | $25.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.27% | +1.55% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | 0.14% | $27.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.65% | -4.36% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -0.85% | $28.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.98% | +1.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -1.14% | $27.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.73% | +0.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.24 | -0.20% | $25.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.23% | +2.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.24 | 0.31% | $29.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.13% | +2.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.24 | -0.37% | $30.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.78% | -1.88% | |
| Q1 | $0.24 | -1.36% | $29.35 | 18 | no | yes | -4.46% | -2.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.68% | $24.84 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.21% | +1.81% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with NI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical NI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (19 events)
+0.53%
Win rate (19 trades)
89%
Cumulative P&L
+10.05%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+99.96%
Best event
+2.62%
Worst event
-3.17%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
19 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NI (19)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.89% | |
| -2.40% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.99% | |
| -3.17% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +2.62% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.62% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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