Northrop Grumman (NOC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.24), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NOC sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±5 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.24+0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.24 | +0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.27% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.14% | +0.89pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 11 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±5 days.
| Dividend | $2.47 |
| Per-event yield | 0.34% |
| Annualized yield | 1.74% |
| Previously paid | Feb 23, 2026 ($2.31) |
| Last record date | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 11, 2026 |
NOC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Northrop Grumman (NOC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $2.31 | -0.32% | $723.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.50% | +6.46% | |
| Q4 | $2.31 | -0.79% | $572.25 | 11 | no | yes | -5.00% | -2.86% | |
| Q3 | $2.31 | 0.31% | $590.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.40% | -2.73% | |
| Q2 | $2.31 | -0.75% | $484.77 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.63% | +1.84% | |
| Q1 | $2.06 | 1.00% | $461.74 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.30% | +7.75% | |
| Q4 | $2.06 | -0.54% | $489.65 | >30 | no | no | -3.90% | -1.72% | |
| Q3 | $2.06 | -0.11% | $523.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.88% | -0.23% | |
| Q2 | $2.06 | -0.38% | $467.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.86% | -3.39% | |
| Q1 | $1.87 | -0.27% | $457.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.71% | -0.06% | |
| Q4 | $1.87 | 0.01% | $471.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.49% | +2.18% | |
| Q3 | $1.87 | 0.06% | $432.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.60% | +1.23% | |
| Q2 | $1.87 | -0.21% | $433.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.27% | +3.21% | |
| Q1 | $1.73 | -0.76% | $476.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.79% | -1.50% | |
| Q4 | $1.73 | 0.87% | $522.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.14% | +4.78% | |
| Q3 | $1.73 | -0.22% | $494.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.99% | -3.20% | |
| Q2 | $1.73 | -0.27% | $467.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.80% | +2.82% | |
| Q1 | $1.57 | -0.54% | $395.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.54% | +18.88% | |
| Q4 | $1.57 | -2.37% | $361.37 | 7 | no | yes | -4.28% | -0.54% | |
| Q3 | $1.57 | 0.09% | $366.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.79% | +0.20% | |
| Q2 | $1.57 | -0.32% | $370.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.61% | +0.80% |
- +6.46%
- -2.86%
- -2.73%
- +1.84%
- +7.75%
- -1.72%
- -0.23%
- -3.39%
- -0.06%
- +2.18%
- +1.23%
- +3.21%
- -1.50%
- +4.78%
- -3.20%
- +2.82%
- +18.88%
- -0.54%
- +0.20%
- +0.80%
NOC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
NOC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NOC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $494.00
- After-tax dividend
- $321.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$144.71
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$176.39
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.12%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~6.1%
NOC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NOC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NOC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.42% | |
| +0.43% | |
| -0.54% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.39% | |
| -1.72% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.39% | |
| -2.86% | |
| +0.32% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.