Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NOC is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$744.20
Method range
$129.18 – $744.20
median $584.27
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $744.20 | +36.70% |
| Exit multiple | $440.15 | -19.15% |
| Analyst target | $728.38 | +33.80% |
| Graham number | $129.18 | -76.27% |
- Forward DCF$744.20
- Exit multiple$440.15
- Analyst target$728.38
- Graham number$129.18
Stock price
$544.40
EPS (TTM)
$31.95
5Y EPS CAGR
8.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$744.20
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
4.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 26.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
8.9%
Your model implies
4.6%
Next-year analyst consensus
-12.6%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | -0.5% | -1.5% |
| 8.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| 9.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% |
| 10.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% |
| 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$15.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.00
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Northrop Grumman (NOC) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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