Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NOC is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$719.67
Method range
$147.65 – $719.67
median $557.52
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $719.67 | +37.01% |
| Exit multiple | $445.78 | -15.13% |
| Analyst target | $669.25 | +27.41% |
| Graham number | $147.65 | -71.89% |
- Forward DCF$719.67
- Exit multiple$445.78
- Analyst target$669.25
- Graham number$147.65
Stock price
$525.28
FCF / share (TTM)
$6.88
3Y FCF CAGR
14.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$239.50
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
25.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -119.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
14.5%
Your model implies
25.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 15% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | 21.6% | 20.7% | 19.8% | 18.7% | 17.5% |
| 8.7% | 24.2% | 23.5% | 22.6% | 21.8% | 20.8% |
| 9.7% | 26.6% | 26.0% | 25.3% | 24.5% | 23.7% |
| 10.7% | 28.9% | 28.3% | 27.7% | 27.0% | 26.3% |
| 11.7% | 31.1% | 30.5% | 30.0% | 29.4% | 28.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.66
Low vs growth
Net debt
$15.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.00
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Northrop Grumman (NOC) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks1.11% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.79% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History5 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.