NRG dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
NRG Energy (NRG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.25), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NRG sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Nov 3, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.25
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.25 | -0.21 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.75% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 63% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.94% | -1.19pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
Dividend
$0.48
Per-event yield
0.35%
Annualized yield
1.35%
Previously paid
Aug 3, 2026 ($0.48)
Last record date
Aug 3, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 17, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for NRG Energy (NRG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.48 | 0.31% | $134.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.06% | — | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.49% | $155.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.93% | -10.92% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -0.34% | $152.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.95% | +2.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.44 | 1.00% | $171.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.87% | -2.73% | |
| Q3 | $0.44 | -3.01% | $167.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.28% | -8.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.44 | 1.56% | $109.58 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.52% | +10.22% | |
| Q1 | $0.44 | -3.36% | $102.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.36% | +3.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.41 | -0.55% | $90.40 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.70% | +6.80% | |
| Q3 | $0.41 | -0.23% | $75.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.38% | +4.27% | |
| Q2 | $0.41 | -0.89% | $73.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.31% | -0.19% | |
| Q1 | $0.41 | -0.46% | $54.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.13% | -1.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.73% | $42.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.61% | +8.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -0.64% | $37.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.08% | +0.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -1.67% | $34.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.42% | -7.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -0.54% | $33.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.04% | +5.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -1.23% | $44.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.75% | +1.99% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -0.51% | $37.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +3.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -1.08% | $37.15 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.58% | +12.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -1.20% | $39.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.84% | +0.88% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | -0.86% | $40.86 | 2 | yes | yes | -15.08% | -10.41% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with NRG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical NRG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.65%
Win rate (20 trades)
100%
Cumulative P&L
+13.08%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+258.59%
Best event
+1.12%
Worst event
+0.26%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NRG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.80% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.35% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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