Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NRG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$24.61
Method range
$17.89 – $196.00
median $86.71
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $24.61 | -82.42% |
| Exit multiple | $148.80 | +6.30% |
| Analyst target | $196.00 | +40.02% |
| Graham number | $17.89 | -87.22% |
- Forward DCF$24.61
- Exit multiple$148.80
- Analyst target$196.00
- Graham number$17.89
Stock price
$139.98
EPS (TTM)
$0.85
5Y EPS CAGR
14.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$24.61
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
38.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -468.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
14.1%
Your model implies
38.9%
Analyst consensus for next year implies 1004% — beyond the model's annualised scale. Consensus reflects a one-step EPS estimate vs TTM, not a multi-year CAGR.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | 35.1% | 34.3% | 33.3% | 32.3% | 31.3% |
| 9.7% | 37.8% | 37.0% | 36.2% | 35.4% | 34.5% |
| 10.7% | 40.3% | 39.6% | 38.9% | 38.2% | 37.4% |
| 11.7% | 42.7% | 42.1% | 41.5% | 40.8% | 40.1% |
| 12.7% | 45.0% | 44.5% | 43.9% | 43.3% | 42.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.70
Low vs growth
Net debt
$12B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.20
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
NRG Energy (NRG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks6.06% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.31% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History1 split
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.