Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NRG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$24.78
Method range
$17.89 – $194.50
median $82.31
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $24.78 | -80.82% |
| Exit multiple | $139.85 | +8.24% |
| Analyst target | $194.50 | +50.54% |
| Graham number | $17.89 | -86.16% |
- Forward DCF$24.78
- Exit multiple$139.85
- Analyst target$194.50
- Graham number$17.89
Stock price
$129.20
EPS (TTM)
$0.85
5Y EPS CAGR
14.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$24.78
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
37.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -421.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
14.1%
Your model implies
37.6%
Analyst consensus for next year implies 1002% — beyond the model's annualised scale. Consensus reflects a one-step EPS estimate vs TTM, not a multi-year CAGR.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | 33.8% | 33.0% | 32.1% | 31.1% | 30.0% |
| 9.6% | 36.5% | 35.7% | 34.9% | 34.1% | 33.2% |
| 10.6% | 39.0% | 38.3% | 37.6% | 36.9% | 36.1% |
| 11.6% | 41.4% | 40.8% | 40.1% | 39.5% | 38.8% |
| 12.6% | 43.7% | 43.1% | 42.5% | 41.9% | 41.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.61
Low vs growth
Net debt
$12.0B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.22
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
NRG Energy (NRG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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