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Fair Value for Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

See growth priced into Occidental Petroleum (OXY): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Analysis
Capital Return

How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what OXY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$118.14

Margin of safety
+51.33% vs current price $57.50

Method range

$55.49 – $118.14

median $79.80

Methods lean undervalued

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$118.14
  • Exit multiple$94.69
  • Analyst target$64.92
  • Graham number$55.49

Stock price

$57.50

EPS (TTM)

$4.01

5Y EPS CAGR

0.5%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$118.14

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied EPS growth

-7.8%

per year over your projection horizon

Discount vs DCF

Margin of safety 51.3% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 5Y CAGR

0.5%

Your model implies

-7.8%

Analyst consensus for next year implies 39.1% — beyond the model's annualised scale. Consensus reflects a one-step EPS estimate vs TTM, not a multi-year CAGR.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)5.4%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
5.0%-6.8%-7.9%-9.3%-11.0%-13.2%
5.0%-6.8%-7.9%-9.3%-11.0%-13.2%
5.4%-5.6%-6.6%-7.8%-9.2%-11.0%
6.4%-3.0%-3.8%-4.8%-5.8%-7.0%
7.4%-0.8%-1.5%-2.2%-3.0%-3.9%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday24.3· at high
5Y low4.7
Median17.9
5Y high24.3
P/SToday1.9· at high
5Y low1.0
Median1.7
5Y high1.9
EV/EBITDAToday5.3
5Y low3.5
Median5.0
5Y high5.5

Net debt

$22B

Total debt − cash

Beta

0.15

Vs market benchmark

Annual diluted EPS

Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.

Scale: -17.06 to 12.40 EPS; horizontal line at 0. Fiscal years with no row in the database are omitted.

Frequently asked questions

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Key Financials

Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric

Operations

Explore more

Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation

Overview
Capital Return

How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.