Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what PCAR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$144.92
Method range
$31.14 – $144.92
median $98.45
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $144.92 | +10.53% |
| Exit multiple | $68.50 | -47.75% |
| Analyst target | $128.40 | -2.07% |
| Graham number | $31.14 | -76.25% |
- Forward DCF$144.92
- Exit multiple$68.50
- Analyst target$128.40
- Graham number$31.14
Stock price
$131.11
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.57
3Y FCF CAGR
52.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$774.05
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
26.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 83.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
52.6%
Your model implies
26.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 53% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 9.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | 22.5% | 21.6% | 20.6% | 19.5% | 18.3% |
| 8.6% | 25.2% | 24.4% | 23.6% | 22.7% | 21.6% |
| 9.6% | 27.7% | 27.0% | 26.2% | 25.5% | 24.6% |
| 10.6% | 30.0% | 29.4% | 28.7% | 28.0% | 27.3% |
| 11.6% | 32.2% | 31.6% | 31.1% | 30.5% | 29.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
2.96
Demanding vs growth
Net cash
$6.31B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.98
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
PACCAR (PCAR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.06% TTM
- Dividend Profile2.09% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History10 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.