Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what PCAR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$145.88
Method range
$31.14 – $145.88
median $97.72
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $145.88 | +25.03% |
| Exit multiple | $68.04 | -41.69% |
| Analyst target | $127.40 | +9.19% |
| Graham number | $31.14 | -73.31% |
- Forward DCF$145.88
- Exit multiple$68.04
- Analyst target$127.40
- Graham number$31.14
Stock price
$116.68
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.57
3Y FCF CAGR
52.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$780.35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
24.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 85.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
52.6%
Your model implies
24.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 53% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 8.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | 20.9% | 20.0% | 19.0% | 17.9% | 16.7% |
| 8.5% | 23.5% | 22.7% | 21.9% | 21.0% | 20.0% |
| 9.5% | 25.9% | 25.2% | 24.5% | 23.7% | 22.9% |
| 10.5% | 28.2% | 27.6% | 27.0% | 26.3% | 25.6% |
| 11.5% | 30.4% | 29.8% | 29.3% | 28.7% | 28.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
2.96
Demanding vs growth
Net cash
$9.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.99
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
PACCAR (PCAR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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