Principal Financial Group (PFG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.44), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PFG sits noticeably below the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 1, 2026 (±6 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.44+0.14 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.44 | +0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.58% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.59% | +0.78pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 27 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±6 days.
| Dividend | $0.82 |
| Per-event yield | 0.91% |
| Annualized yield | 3.10% |
| Previously paid | Mar 11, 2026 ($0.80) |
| Last record date | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 27, 2026 |
PFG Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Principal Financial Group (PFG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.80 | -1.35% | $89.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.33% | -2.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.79 | -0.68% | $84.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.97% | +7.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -0.55% | $80.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.58% | +3.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.76 | -1.18% | $77.89 | 16 | no | yes | -3.12% | -0.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -0.13% | $82.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.93% | +2.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.73 | -0.62% | $87.09 | >30 | no | no | -9.58% | -4.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.72 | -0.35% | $81.14 | 7 | no | yes | -4.78% | -0.22% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -0.35% | $82.04 | 27 | no | yes | -7.41% | -2.57% | |
| Q1 | $0.69 | -1.23% | $79.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.75% | +3.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | -0.62% | $74.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +1.55% | |
| Q3 | $0.65 | -1.39% | $77.07 | 7 | no | yes | -3.35% | -1.10% | |
| Q2 | $0.64 | -1.87% | $68.43 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.76% | +5.09% | |
| Q1 | $0.64 | 4.02% | $72.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.91% | +5.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.64 | -1.42% | $89.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.83% | +1.16% | |
| Q3 | $0.64 | -1.18% | $74.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.71% | +5.09% | |
| Q2 | $0.64 | -0.47% | $72.93 | >30 | no | no | -13.36% | -0.92% | |
| Q1 | $0.64 | 0.91% | $64.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.14% | +8.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.64 | -1.83% | $70.92 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.51% | +1.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.63 | -0.76% | $67.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.84% | -2.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | -0.65% | $66.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.83% | -0.82% |
- -2.51%
- +7.95%
- +3.34%
- -0.37%
- +2.75%
- -4.40%
- -0.22%
- -2.57%
- +3.71%
- +1.55%
- -1.10%
- +5.09%
- +5.06%
- +1.16%
- +5.09%
- -0.92%
- +8.18%
- +1.33%
- -2.35%
- -0.82%
PFG Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
PFG Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with PFG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $164.00
- After-tax dividend
- $106.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$17.95
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$88.65
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.49%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~24.9%
PFG Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical PFG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PFG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.92% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.99% | |
| -0.92% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.94% | |
| -1.10% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -2.57% | |
| -0.22% | |
| -4.40% | |
| +0.90% | |
| -0.37% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.89% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.