Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Dividend Capture: 0.58% per event (2.3% annualized)
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.35), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PKG sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jun 12, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.35+0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.35+0.13 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.41%in line with sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 50%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.11%+1.57pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 15
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Per-event yield
- 0.58%
- Annualized yield
- 2.33%
- Previously paid
- Mar 13, 2026 ($1.25)
- Last record date
- Mar 13, 2026
- Last payment date
- Apr 15, 2026
The company has not yet declared this dividend. Date and amount may shift when the official declaration arrives.
How PKG ranks in Consumer Cyclical
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (44 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#31of 44
Beats ~30% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 44
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#11of 44
Beats ~75% of peers on this metric
PKG Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.25 | 0.92% | $214.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.98% | -4.70% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -0.09% | $205.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.52% | +1.33% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | -0.29% | $215.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.43% | -0.55% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -1.54% | $193.31 | 12 | no | yes | -4.42% | -1.74% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | 0.15% | $192.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.64% | +1.89% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -0.58% | $227.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.03% | -0.55% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | 0.18% | $210.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.05% | +2.61% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -1.05% | $185.12 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.26% | +3.18% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | -0.68% | $184.42 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.10% | +1.00% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -1.18% | $167.35 | 14 | no | yes | -3.14% | -1.45% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | -0.51% | $149.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.68% | +3.33% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -0.15% | $131.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.08% | +0.08% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | 0.57% | $130.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.41% | +2.69% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -1.31% | $132.88 | 15 | no | yes | -6.06% | -2.20% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | -0.69% | $114.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | +0.65% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -0.89% | $143.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.88% | -4.05% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | 0.49% | $149.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.45% | +5.06% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -0.65% | $134.50 | 8 | no | yes | -7.23% | -0.37% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -0.34% | $151.68 | >30 | no | no | -9.05% | -8.35% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -0.61% | $143.85 | >30 | no | no | -8.47% | -5.23% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- 0.92%
- Pre-ex close
- $214.04
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.98%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.70%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- -0.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $205.07
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.52%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.33%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- -0.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $215.15
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.43%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.55%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- -1.54%
- Pre-ex close
- $193.31
- High touch (td)
- 12
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.42%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.74%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- 0.15%
- Pre-ex close
- $192.03
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.64%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.89%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- -0.58%
- Pre-ex close
- $227.46
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.03%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.55%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- 0.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $210.27
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.05%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.61%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- -1.05%
- Pre-ex close
- $185.12
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.26%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.18%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- -0.68%
- Pre-ex close
- $184.42
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.10%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.00%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- -1.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $167.35
- High touch (td)
- 14
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.14%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.45%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- -0.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $149.81
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.68%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.33%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- -0.15%
- Pre-ex close
- $131.96
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.08%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.08%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- 0.57%
- Pre-ex close
- $130.69
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.41%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.69%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- -1.31%
- Pre-ex close
- $132.88
- High touch (td)
- 15
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.06%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.20%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- -0.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $114.22
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.20%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.65%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.25
- Gap %
- -0.89%
- Pre-ex close
- $143.67
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.88%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.05%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.00
- Gap %
- 0.49%
- Pre-ex close
- $149.75
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.45%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.06%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.00
- Gap %
- -0.65%
- Pre-ex close
- $134.50
- High touch (td)
- 8
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.23%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.37%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.00
- Gap %
- -0.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $151.68
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -9.05%
- P&L 5d %
- -8.35%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.00
- Gap %
- -0.61%
- Pre-ex close
- $143.85
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -8.47%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.23%
PKG Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1260%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days315%
- 30+210%
60% within 1d · 70% within 5d · 90% within 30d
PKG Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with PKG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $250.00
- After-tax dividend
- $162.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$42.81
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$119.69
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.28%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~14.1%
PKG Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical PKG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PKG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -5.23% | |
| -8.35% | |
| -0.37% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +1.09% | |
| -2.20% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.83% | |
| -1.45% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.65% | |
| -1.74% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.58% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See PKG seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for PKG?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take PKG to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, PKG touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 15 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on PKG large enough to capture?
PKG has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.35 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for PKG?
The next ex-dividend date for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is Jun 12, 2026, estimated based on the historical pattern (±3 days).
How does PKG compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Consumer Cyclical, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. PKG sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does PKG dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.