PKG dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.34), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PKG sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 15, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.34
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.34 | +0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.33% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.80% | +1.70pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
Dividend
$1.50
Per-event yield
0.66%
Annualized yield
2.28%
Previously paid
Jun 15, 2026 ($1.50)
Last record date
Jun 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.50 | 1.04% | $228.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.43% | +2.67% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | 0.92% | $214.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.98% | -4.70% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -0.09% | $205.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.52% | +1.33% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | -0.29% | $215.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.43% | -0.55% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -1.54% | $193.31 | 12 | no | yes | -4.42% | -1.74% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | 0.15% | $192.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.64% | +1.89% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -0.58% | $227.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.03% | -0.55% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | 0.18% | $210.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.05% | +2.61% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -1.05% | $185.12 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.26% | +3.18% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | -0.68% | $184.42 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.10% | +1.00% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -1.18% | $167.35 | 14 | no | yes | -3.14% | -1.45% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | -0.51% | $149.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.68% | +3.33% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -0.15% | $131.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.08% | +0.08% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | 0.57% | $130.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.41% | +2.69% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -1.31% | $132.88 | 15 | no | yes | -6.06% | -2.20% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | -0.69% | $114.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | +0.65% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -0.89% | $143.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.88% | -4.05% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | 0.49% | $149.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.45% | +5.06% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -0.65% | $134.50 | 8 | no | yes | -7.23% | -0.37% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -0.34% | $151.68 | >30 | no | no | -9.05% | -8.35% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with PKG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical PKG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.16%
Win rate (20 trades)
75%
Cumulative P&L
-3.16%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+67.76%
Best event
+1.09%
Worst event
-8.35%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PKG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -8.35% | |
| -0.37% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +1.09% | |
| -2.20% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.83% | |
| -1.45% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.65% | |
| -1.74% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.66% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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