Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what PKG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$279.27
Method range
$47.49 – $279.27
median $217.35
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $279.27 | +22.38% |
| Exit multiple | $182.91 | -19.84% |
| Analyst target | $251.80 | +10.35% |
| Graham number | $47.49 | -79.19% |
- Forward DCF$279.27
- Exit multiple$182.91
- Analyst target$251.80
- Graham number$47.49
Stock price
$228.19
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.86
3Y FCF CAGR
12.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$62.65
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
29.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -264.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
12.0%
Your model implies
29.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 12% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | 25.3% | 24.2% | 23.0% | 21.6% | 20.0% |
| 7.8% | 28.3% | 27.4% | 26.4% | 25.3% | 24.0% |
| 8.8% | 31.1% | 30.3% | 29.4% | 28.5% | 27.5% |
| 9.8% | 33.7% | 32.9% | 32.2% | 31.4% | 30.5% |
| 10.8% | 36.1% | 35.4% | 34.8% | 34.1% | 33.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.40
Low vs growth
Net debt
$3.84B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.82
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.