Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what PKG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$281.06
Method range
$47.49 – $281.06
median $216.09
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $281.06 | +26.14% |
| Exit multiple | $180.58 | -18.96% |
| Analyst target | $251.60 | +12.92% |
| Graham number | $47.49 | -78.69% |
- Forward DCF$281.06
- Exit multiple$180.58
- Analyst target$251.60
- Graham number$47.49
Stock price
$222.82
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.86
3Y FCF CAGR
12.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$63.05
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
29.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -253.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
12.0%
Your model implies
29.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 12% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | 24.9% | 23.8% | 22.5% | 21.2% | 19.6% |
| 7.7% | 27.9% | 27.0% | 25.9% | 24.8% | 23.6% |
| 8.7% | 30.7% | 29.9% | 29.0% | 28.0% | 27.0% |
| 9.7% | 33.2% | 32.5% | 31.8% | 30.9% | 30.1% |
| 10.7% | 35.6% | 35.0% | 34.3% | 33.6% | 32.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.39
Low vs growth
Net debt
$3.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.83
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation