RCL dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 8 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 8 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.09), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, RCL sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.09
TL;DR over the most recent 8 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.09 | -0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.15% | -0.73pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 35% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.84% | -1.35pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$1.50
Per-event yield
0.52%
Annualized yield
1.75%
Previously paid
Jun 3, 2026 ($1.50)
Last record date
Jun 3, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 2, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.50 | -1.18% | $290.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.52% | -7.07% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -4.34% | $283.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.50% | -3.19% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -0.46% | $294.12 | 7 | no | yes | -6.04% | -4.41% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -1.25% | $327.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.89% | -1.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | 0.34% | $266.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.18% | +0.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -1.10% | $215.54 | 4 | yes | yes | -8.59% | -1.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -0.87% | $237.76 | 14 | no | yes | -7.28% | -3.70% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.32% | $171.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.77% | +3.72% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | -5.46% | $79.36 | >30 | no | no | -75.74% | -60.87% | |
| Q4 | $0.78 | -0.61% | $127.59 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.11% | +5.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -0.19% | $112.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.57% | -4.67% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.46% | $121.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.41% | +1.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.67% | $119.41 | 10 | no | yes | -4.06% | -1.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -0.13% | $105.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.17% | -9.50% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | 0.06% | $131.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.09% | -0.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.06% | $104.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.60% | -0.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | 0.20% | $121.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.13% | +4.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.25% | $126.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.80% | -4.01% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.03% | $115.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.03% | +2.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | 0.02% | $110.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.41% | +1.99% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with RCL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical RCL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-3.13%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
-62.53%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+173.38%
Best event
+0.69%
Worst event
-60.87%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · RCL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.43% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.66% | |
| -1.33% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.61% | |
| -60.87% | |
| +0.23% | |
| -3.70% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.31% | |
| -4.41% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.52% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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