Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 7 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.09), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, RCL sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.09-0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 7 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.09 | -0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.14% | -0.67pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.11% | -0.43pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $1.50 |
| Per-event yield | 0.53% |
| Annualized yield | 1.75% |
| Previously paid | Mar 6, 2026 ($1.50) |
| Last record date | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 3, 2026 |
RCL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.50 | -4.34% | $283.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.50% | -3.19% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -0.46% | $294.12 | 7 | no | yes | -6.04% | -4.41% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -1.25% | $327.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.89% | -1.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | 0.34% | $266.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.18% | +0.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -1.10% | $215.54 | 4 | yes | yes | -8.59% | -1.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -0.87% | $237.76 | 14 | no | yes | -7.28% | -3.70% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.32% | $171.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.77% | +3.72% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | -5.46% | $79.36 | >30 | no | no | -75.74% | -60.87% | |
| Q4 | $0.78 | -0.61% | $127.59 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.11% | +5.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -0.19% | $112.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.57% | -4.67% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.46% | $121.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.41% | +1.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.67% | $119.41 | 10 | no | yes | -4.06% | -1.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -0.13% | $105.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.17% | -9.50% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | 0.06% | $131.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.09% | -0.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.06% | $104.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.60% | -0.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | 0.20% | $121.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.13% | +4.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.24% | $126.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.80% | -4.01% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.03% | $115.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.03% | +2.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | 0.02% | $110.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.41% | +1.99% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -0.78% | $97.18 | 6 | no | yes | -3.89% | +0.57% |
- -3.19%
- -4.41%
- -1.81%
- +0.73%
- -1.29%
- -3.70%
- +3.72%
- -60.87%
- +5.11%
- -4.67%
- +1.95%
- -1.33%
- -9.50%
- -0.93%
- -0.86%
- +4.28%
- -4.01%
- +2.83%
- +1.99%
- +0.57%
RCL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
RCL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with RCL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $300.00
- After-tax dividend
- $195.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$56.61
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$138.39
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.24%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.3%
RCL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical RCL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · RCL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.57% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.66% | |
| -1.33% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.61% | |
| -60.87% | |
| +0.23% | |
| -3.70% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.31% | |
| -4.41% | |
| +0.53% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.