Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what RCL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$247.12
Method range
$53.38 – $345.00
median $258.51
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $247.12 | -11.74% |
| Exit multiple | $269.90 | -3.61% |
| Analyst target | $345.00 | +23.21% |
| Graham number | $53.38 | -80.94% |
- Forward DCF$247.12
- Exit multiple$269.90
- Analyst target$345.00
- Graham number$53.38
Stock price
$280.00
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.94
3Y FCF CAGR
48.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$981.03
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
29.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 71.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
48.6%
Your model implies
29.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 49% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 8.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.4% | 26.2% | 25.7% | 25.2% | 24.6% | 24.0% |
| 12.4% | 28.2% | 27.8% | 27.3% | 26.7% | 26.2% |
| 13.4% | 30.2% | 29.7% | 29.3% | 28.8% | 28.3% |
| 14.4% | 32.0% | 31.6% | 31.2% | 30.8% | 30.3% |
| 15.0% | 33.1% | 32.7% | 32.3% | 31.9% | 31.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.77
Low vs growth
Net debt
$21.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.78
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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