Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what RCL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$245.70
Method range
$53.38 – $346.86
median $258.22
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $245.70 | -14.05% |
| Exit multiple | $270.74 | -5.29% |
| Analyst target | $346.86 | +21.34% |
| Graham number | $53.38 | -81.33% |
- Forward DCF$245.70
- Exit multiple$270.74
- Analyst target$346.86
- Graham number$53.38
Stock price
$285.85
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.94
3Y FCF CAGR
48.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$973.20
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
29.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 70.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
48.6%
Your model implies
29.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 49% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 8.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5% | 26.6% | 26.1% | 25.6% | 25.0% | 24.4% |
| 12.5% | 28.6% | 28.2% | 27.7% | 27.2% | 26.6% |
| 13.5% | 30.6% | 30.2% | 29.7% | 29.2% | 28.7% |
| 14.5% | 32.5% | 32.1% | 31.6% | 31.2% | 30.8% |
| 15.0% | 33.4% | 33.0% | 32.6% | 32.2% | 31.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.77
Low vs growth
Net debt
$21.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.76
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks2.36% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.75% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History1 split
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.