Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what SHOP is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$47.59
Method range
$11.55 – $268.99
median $101.25
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $47.59 | -59.82% |
| Exit multiple | $268.99 | +127.15% |
| Analyst target | $154.91 | +30.81% |
| Graham number | $11.55 | -90.24% |
- Forward DCF$47.59
- Exit multiple$268.99
- Analyst target$154.91
- Graham number$11.55
Stock price
$118.42
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.37
3Y FCF CAGR
41.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$38.02
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
60.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -211.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
41.8%
Your model implies
60.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 42% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0% | 56.8% | 56.2% | 55.6% | 54.9% | 54.2% |
| 14.0% | 59.2% | 58.6% | 58.0% | 57.4% | 56.8% |
| 15.0% | 61.5% | 61.0% | 60.4% | 59.9% | 59.3% |
| 15.0% | 61.5% | 61.0% | 60.4% | 59.9% | 59.3% |
| 15.0% | 61.5% | 61.0% | 60.4% | 59.9% | 59.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.37
Low vs growth
Net cash
$1.35B
Total debt − cash
Beta
2.59
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Shopify (SHOP) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.