Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what SHOP is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$47.59
Method range
$11.55 – $268.54
median $102.19
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $47.59 | -56.56% |
| Exit multiple | $268.54 | +145.15% |
| Analyst target | $156.79 | +43.13% |
| Graham number | $11.55 | -89.45% |
- Forward DCF$47.59
- Exit multiple$268.54
- Analyst target$156.79
- Graham number$11.55
Stock price
$109.54
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.37
3Y FCF CAGR
41.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$38.02
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
59.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -188.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
41.8%
Your model implies
59.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 42% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0% | 55.5% | 54.9% | 54.3% | 53.6% | 52.9% |
| 14.0% | 57.8% | 57.3% | 56.7% | 56.1% | 55.5% |
| 15.0% | 60.1% | 59.6% | 59.1% | 58.6% | 58.0% |
| 15.0% | 60.1% | 59.6% | 59.1% | 58.6% | 58.0% |
| 15.0% | 60.1% | 59.6% | 59.1% | 58.6% | 58.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.37
Low vs growth
Net cash
$1.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
2.59
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Shopify (SHOP) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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