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Fair Value for Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

See growth priced into Super Micro Computer (SMCI): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what SMCI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$700.45

Margin of safety
+94.06% vs current price $41.64

Method range

$15.18 $700.45

median $44.02

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$700.45
  • Exit multiple$49.45
  • Analyst target$38.60
  • Graham number$15.18

Stock price

$41.64

EPS (TTM)

$1.89

5Y EPS CAGR

60.0%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$700.45

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied EPS growth

16.1%

per year over your projection horizon

Discount vs DCF

Margin of safety 94.1% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 5Y CAGR

60.0%

Your model implies

16.1%

Next-year analyst consensus

37.6%

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)13.9%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
11.9%13.5%13.1%12.6%12.2%11.7%
12.9%15.2%14.8%14.4%14.0%13.6%
13.9%16.8%16.5%16.1%15.7%15.3%
14.9%18.4%18.1%17.7%17.4%17.1%
15.0%18.5%18.2%17.9%17.6%17.2%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday27.7
5Y low6.4
Median21.7
5Y high41.8
P/SToday1.3
5Y low0.3
Median1.3
5Y high3.2
EV/EBITDAToday21.6
5Y low4.5
Median17.1
5Y high38.3

PEG

0.34

Low vs growth

Net cash

$391M

Total debt − cash

Beta

1.87

Vs market benchmark

Annual diluted EPS

Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.

Scale: 0.05 to 2.01 EPS; horizontal line at 0. Fiscal years with no row in the database are omitted.

Frequently asked questions