Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what SMCI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$700.45
Method range
$15.18 – $700.45
median $44.02
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $700.45 | +1,582.16% |
| Exit multiple | $49.45 | +18.75% |
| Analyst target | $38.60 | -7.30% |
| Graham number | $15.18 | -63.54% |
- Forward DCF$700.45
- Exit multiple$49.45
- Analyst target$38.60
- Graham number$15.18
Stock price
$41.64
EPS (TTM)
$1.89
5Y EPS CAGR
60.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$700.45
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
16.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 94.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
60.0%
Your model implies
16.1%
Next-year analyst consensus
37.6%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.9% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 11.7% |
| 12.9% | 15.2% | 14.8% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 13.6% |
| 13.9% | 16.8% | 16.5% | 16.1% | 15.7% | 15.3% |
| 14.9% | 18.4% | 18.1% | 17.7% | 17.4% | 17.1% |
| 15.0% | 18.5% | 18.2% | 17.9% | 17.6% | 17.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.34
Low vs growth
Net cash
$391M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.87
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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