SPG dividend capture — median 4d pre-ex touch, 80% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Simon Property Group (SPG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 80% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 4 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.67), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SPG sits noticeably below the Real Estate sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 8, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
80%
Median days-to-touch
4d
Signal-to-noise
0.67
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 80% | -15pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 4d | +3.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.67 | +0.23 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.38% | -0.58pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.41% | +0.42pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$2.25
Per-event yield
1.09%
Annualized yield
4.15%
Previously paid
Jun 9, 2026 ($2.25)
Last record date
Jun 9, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 30, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Simon Property Group (SPG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $2.25 | -0.22% | $207.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.04% | +4.89% | |
| Q1 | $2.20 | -1.41% | $192.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.95% | -0.05% | |
| Q4 | $2.20 | -0.95% | $181.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.99% | +2.97% | |
| Q3 | $2.15 | -1.70% | $182.55 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.50% | +0.61% | |
| Q2 | $2.10 | -1.49% | $162.10 | 16 | no | yes | -4.11% | -1.32% | |
| Q1 | $2.10 | -1.67% | $171.10 | >30 | no | no | -7.53% | -1.25% | |
| Q4 | $2.10 | -1.19% | $183.84 | >30 | no | no | -8.07% | +0.10% | |
| Q3 | $2.05 | -1.47% | $164.50 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.06% | +1.49% | |
| Q2 | $2.00 | -2.42% | $153.78 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.77% | -1.92% | |
| Q1 | $1.95 | -0.87% | $152.32 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.93% | -0.66% | |
| Q4 | $1.90 | -1.31% | $131.73 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.01% | +12.72% | |
| Q3 | $1.90 | -1.80% | $115.75 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.25% | +3.05% | |
| Q2 | $1.85 | -2.30% | $112.70 | 7 | no | yes | -4.41% | +0.06% | |
| Q1 | $1.80 | -1.38% | $122.18 | >30 | no | no | -14.69% | -9.15% | |
| Q4 | $1.80 | -0.49% | $119.05 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.41% | +0.81% | |
| Q3 | $1.75 | -2.67% | $103.46 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.59% | -2.10% | |
| Q2 | $1.70 | -2.75% | $112.28 | >30 | no | no | -16.73% | -11.65% | |
| Q1 | $1.65 | 1.53% | $131.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.52% | +1.21% | |
| Q4 | $1.65 | -1.59% | $157.45 | 12 | no | yes | -8.78% | -2.63% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -1.55% | $134.58 | 11 | no | yes | -5.58% | -1.43% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 4 | 20% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
Pre-filled with SPG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical SPG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.56%
Win rate (20 trades)
70%
Cumulative P&L
-11.28%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+86.13%
Best event
+1.69%
Worst event
-11.65%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SPG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -1.43% | |
| -2.63% | |
| +1.26% | |
| -11.65% | |
| +1.69% | |
| +1.51% | |
| -9.15% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +1.64% | |
| +1.44% | |
| +1.28% | |
| +1.30% | |
| +1.25% | |
| +0.10% | |
| -1.25% | |
| -1.32% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +1.09% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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