Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what SPG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,278.29
Method range
$22.36 – $1,278.29
median $161.70
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,278.29 | +507.81% |
| Exit multiple | $120.30 | -42.80% |
| Analyst target | $203.10 | -3.43% |
| Graham number | $22.36 | -89.37% |
- Forward DCF$1,278.29
- Exit multiple$120.30
- Analyst target$203.10
- Graham number$22.36
Stock price
$210.31
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.93
3Y FCF CAGR
3.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$24.21
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
34.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -768.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
3.7%
Your model implies
34.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 4% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4% | 31.0% | 30.2% | 29.5% | 28.6% | 27.7% |
| 10.4% | 33.4% | 32.8% | 32.1% | 31.3% | 30.5% |
| 11.4% | 35.7% | 35.1% | 34.5% | 33.9% | 33.2% |
| 12.4% | 37.9% | 37.4% | 36.8% | 36.2% | 35.6% |
| 13.4% | 40.0% | 39.6% | 39.1% | 38.5% | 38.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$28.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.36
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Simon Property Group (SPG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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