Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what SPG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,290.51
Method range
$22.36 – $1,290.51
median $171.44
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,290.51 | +470.47% |
| Exit multiple | $123.20 | -45.54% |
| Analyst target | $219.67 | -2.90% |
| Graham number | $22.36 | -90.11% |
- Forward DCF$1,290.51
- Exit multiple$123.20
- Analyst target$219.67
- Graham number$22.36
Stock price
$226.22
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.93
3Y FCF CAGR
3.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$24.37
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
35.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -828.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
3.7%
Your model implies
35.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 4% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | 31.9% | 31.1% | 30.3% | 29.5% | 28.5% |
| 10.3% | 34.3% | 33.7% | 33.0% | 32.2% | 31.4% |
| 11.3% | 36.7% | 36.1% | 35.5% | 34.8% | 34.1% |
| 12.3% | 38.9% | 38.4% | 37.8% | 37.2% | 36.6% |
| 13.3% | 41.1% | 40.6% | 40.0% | 39.5% | 38.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$28.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.33
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Simon Property Group (SPG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.69% TTM
- Dividend Profile3.89% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History2 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.