Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what SPOT is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$350.35
Method range
$64.05 – $695.23
median $482.46
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $350.35 | -29.50% |
| Exit multiple | $695.23 | +39.90% |
| Analyst target | $614.57 | +23.67% |
| Graham number | $64.05 | -87.11% |
- Forward DCF$350.35
- Exit multiple$695.23
- Analyst target$614.57
- Graham number$64.05
Stock price
$496.95
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.11
3Y FCF CAGR
76.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$4819.99
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
38.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 89.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
76.0%
Your model implies
38.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 76% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 8.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.3% | 34.8% | 34.2% | 33.5% | 32.7% | 31.9% |
| 11.3% | 37.2% | 36.6% | 35.9% | 35.3% | 34.6% |
| 12.3% | 39.4% | 38.9% | 38.3% | 37.7% | 37.1% |
| 13.3% | 41.6% | 41.1% | 40.6% | 40.0% | 39.4% |
| 14.3% | 43.7% | 43.2% | 42.7% | 42.2% | 41.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$2.9B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.55
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Spotify (SPOT) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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