Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what SPOT is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$318.53
Method range
$64.05 – $688.21
median $458.45
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $318.53 | -32.82% |
| Exit multiple | $688.21 | +45.14% |
| Analyst target | $598.38 | +26.20% |
| Graham number | $64.05 | -86.49% |
- Forward DCF$318.53
- Exit multiple$688.21
- Analyst target$598.38
- Graham number$64.05
Stock price
$474.16
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.11
3Y FCF CAGR
76.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$4,682.18
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
38.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 89.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
76.0%
Your model implies
38.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 76% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 7.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5% | 34.5% | 33.9% | 33.2% | 32.5% | 31.7% |
| 11.5% | 36.9% | 36.3% | 35.7% | 35.0% | 34.3% |
| 12.5% | 39.1% | 38.5% | 38.0% | 37.4% | 36.8% |
| 13.5% | 41.2% | 40.7% | 40.2% | 39.7% | 39.1% |
| 14.5% | 43.3% | 42.8% | 42.3% | 41.9% | 41.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$2.93B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.56
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Spotify (SPOT) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.