STLD dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Steel Dynamics (STLD) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.11), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, STLD sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 29, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.11
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.11 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.22% | +0.59pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.35% | +0.59pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.53
Per-event yield
0.23%
Annualized yield
0.90%
Previously paid
Jun 30, 2026 ($0.53)
Last record date
Jun 30, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 10, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Steel Dynamics (STLD). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.53 | 0.56% | $234.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.63% | -2.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.53 | 0.71% | $171.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.24% | +9.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.36% | $171.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.85% | +0.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.57% | $138.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.92% | +3.13% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.61% | $131.21 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.73% | +4.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -0.37% | $123.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.78% | -10.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.16% | $113.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +2.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.12% | $125.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.14% | +3.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | 1.25% | $125.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | -0.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | 0.96% | $144.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +1.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | -0.40% | $120.90 | 4 | yes | yes | -8.13% | -3.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | 0.20% | $106.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +0.90% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -0.23% | $106.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.82% | -1.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | 1.30% | $110.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.91% | -5.98% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | 0.11% | $99.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.03% | +3.14% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | 0.03% | $72.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.87% | +6.66% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -0.09% | $67.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.30% | -0.65% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | 1.62% | $84.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.31% | -1.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.10% | $62.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.72% | +3.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | 0.68% | $61.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.59% | -6.53% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with STLD's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical STLD ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.38%
Win rate (20 trades)
100%
Cumulative P&L
+7.51%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+284.77%
Best event
+0.50%
Worst event
+0.23%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · STLD (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.42% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.23% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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