Steel Dynamics (STLD) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.11), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, STLD sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 30, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.53.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.11-0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.11 | -0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.20% | +0.61pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.80% | +0.91pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.53 |
| Per-event yield | 0.31% |
| Annualized yield | 0.82% |
| Previously paid | Mar 31, 2026 ($0.53) |
| Last record date | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 10, 2026 |
STLD Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Steel Dynamics (STLD). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.53 | 0.71% | $171.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.24% | +9.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.36% | $171.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.85% | +0.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.57% | $138.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.92% | +3.13% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.61% | $131.21 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.73% | +4.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -0.37% | $123.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.78% | -10.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.16% | $113.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +2.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.12% | $125.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.14% | +3.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | 1.25% | $125.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | -0.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | 0.96% | $144.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +1.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -0.40% | $120.90 | 4 | yes | yes | -8.13% | -3.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | 0.20% | $106.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +0.90% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.23% | $106.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.82% | -1.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | 1.30% | $110.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.91% | -5.98% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | 0.11% | $99.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.03% | +3.14% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | 0.03% | $72.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.87% | +6.66% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -0.09% | $67.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.30% | -0.65% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | 1.62% | $84.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.31% | -1.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.10% | $62.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.72% | +3.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | 0.68% | $61.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.59% | -6.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | 0.17% | $58.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +4.86% |
- +9.49%
- +0.95%
- +3.13%
- +4.06%
- -10.03%
- +2.76%
- +3.61%
- -0.26%
- +1.62%
- -3.52%
- +0.90%
- -1.29%
- -5.98%
- +3.14%
- +6.66%
- -0.65%
- -1.96%
- +3.11%
- -6.53%
- +4.86%
STLD Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
STLD Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with STLD's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $106.00
- After-tax dividend
- $68.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$34.36
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$34.54
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.10%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~5.1%
STLD Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical STLD ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · STLD (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.44% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.31% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.