Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what STLD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$489.72
Method range
$62.99 – $489.72
median $169.27
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $489.72 | +82.39% |
| Exit multiple | $111.93 | -58.31% |
| Analyst target | $226.60 | -15.61% |
| Graham number | $62.99 | -76.54% |
- Forward DCF$489.72
- Exit multiple$111.93
- Analyst target$226.60
- Graham number$62.99
Stock price
$268.50
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.07
3Y FCF CAGR
-12.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$0.30
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
97.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -90549.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-12.6%
Your model implies
97.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -13% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | 92.1% | 91.1% | 89.9% | 88.7% | 87.4% |
| 11.0% | 95.7% | 94.7% | 93.7% | 92.6% | 91.5% |
| 12.0% | 99.1% | 98.2% | 97.3% | 96.3% | 95.3% |
| 13.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 99.8% | 98.9% |
| 14.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.31
Low vs growth
Net debt
$3.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.49
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Steel Dynamics (STLD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation