Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what STLD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$549.28
Method range
$73.68 – $549.28
median $192.89
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $549.28 | +130.17% |
| Exit multiple | $118.53 | -50.33% |
| Analyst target | $267.25 | +11.99% |
| Graham number | $73.68 | -69.12% |
- Forward DCF$549.28
- Exit multiple$118.53
- Analyst target$267.25
- Graham number$73.68
Stock price
$238.64
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.07
3Y FCF CAGR
-12.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$0.29
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
96.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -82,437.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-12.6%
Your model implies
96.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -13% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.4% | 91.1% | 90.1% | 89.0% | 87.9% | 86.7% |
| 11.4% | 94.6% | 93.7% | 92.7% | 91.7% | 90.6% |
| 12.4% | 97.9% | 97.1% | 96.2% | 95.3% | 94.3% |
| 13.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 99.5% | 98.7% | 97.8% |
| 14.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.31
Low vs growth
Net debt
$3.44B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.54
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Steel Dynamics (STLD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks2.31% TTM
- Dividend Profile0.86% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History2 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.