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Fair Value for Steel Dynamics (STLD)

See growth priced into Steel Dynamics (STLD): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what STLD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$549.28

Margin of safety
+56.55% vs current price $238.64

Method range

$73.68 $549.28

median $192.89

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$549.28
  • Exit multiple$118.53
  • Analyst target$267.25
  • Graham number$73.68

Stock price

$238.64

FCF / share (TTM)

$0.07

3Y FCF CAGR

-12.6%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$0.29

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

96.2%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -82,437.8% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 3Y CAGR

-12.6%

Your model implies

96.2%

Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)12.4%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)-13%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -13% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
10.4%91.1%90.1%89.0%87.9%86.7%
11.4%94.6%93.7%92.7%91.7%90.6%
12.4%97.9%97.1%96.2%95.3%94.3%
13.4%100.0%100.0%99.5%98.7%97.8%
14.4%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday21.1· at high
5Y low4.0
Median8.0
5Y high21.1
P/SToday1.4· at high
5Y low0.7
Median1.0
5Y high1.4
EV/EBITDAToday13.5· at high
5Y low3.2
Median5.7
5Y high13.5

PEG

0.31

Low vs growth

Net debt

$3.44B

Total debt − cash

Beta

1.54

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions