Smurfit Westrock (SW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 13 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.54), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SW sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 14, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.54+0.33 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 13 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.54 | +0.33 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.85% | -0.37pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.96% | -0.28pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.45 |
| Per-event yield | 0.88% |
| Annualized yield | 4.71% |
| Previously paid | Feb 17, 2026 ($0.45) |
| Last record date | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 18, 2026 |
SW Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Smurfit Westrock (SW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.45 | -2.50% | $51.56 | 2 | yes | yes | -13.77% | -10.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | -1.91% | $35.08 | 9 | no | yes | -6.70% | -2.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -0.96% | $43.72 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.07% | +5.51% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -1.33% | $46.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.56% | -5.27% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | -0.60% | $54.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.90% | -0.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -1.17% | $50.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.19% | +13.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -0.07% | $41.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.07% | +6.99% | |
| Q2 | $1.27 | -0.18% | $49.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.66% | -0.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | 0.20% | $35.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +1.32% | |
| Q2 | $1.19 | -0.13% | $30.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.31% | +6.89% | |
| Q3 | $0.31 | -2.72% | $32.40 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.25% | -0.16% | |
| Q2 | $1.04 | -0.47% | $46.61 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.25% | +9.35% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | 0.82% | $48.85 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.82% | +2.70% | |
| Q2 | $1.04 | -0.95% | $52.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +3.55% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | -1.35% | $43.78 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.64% | +1.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.96 | -2.31% | $30.30 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.10% | -1.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.88 | 0.30% | $30.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.75% | -1.80% | |
| Q3 | $0.31 | 0.22% | $36.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.78% | -7.20% | |
| Q2 | $0.82 | 0.03% | $38.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.69% | -6.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.13% | $53.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -18.77% | -3.37% |
- -10.10%
- -2.48%
- +5.51%
- -5.27%
- -0.68%
- +13.09%
- +6.99%
- -0.52%
- +1.32%
- +6.89%
- -0.16%
- +9.35%
- +2.70%
- +3.55%
- +1.40%
- -1.83%
- -1.80%
- -7.20%
- -6.88%
- -3.37%
SW Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
SW Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with SW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $90.00
- After-tax dividend
- $58.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.31
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$48.19
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.47%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~23.6%
SW Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical SW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.54% | |
| +2.09% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +2.91% | |
| +3.16% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +1.98% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +2.23% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +3.94% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +2.59% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.99% | |
| -2.48% | |
| +0.88% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.