Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what SW is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$3.59
Method range
$3.59 – $54.71
median $19.93
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $3.59 | -91.93% |
| Exit multiple | $30.48 | -31.52% |
| Analyst target | $54.71 | +22.92% |
| Graham number | $9.38 | -78.92% |
- Forward DCF$3.59
- Exit multiple$30.48
- Analyst target$54.71
- Graham number$9.38
Stock price
$44.51
EPS (TTM)
$0.72
5Y EPS CAGR
-13.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$3.59
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
21.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1,138.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
-13.0%
Your model implies
21.6%
Analyst consensus for next year implies 227% — beyond the model's annualised scale. Consensus reflects a one-step EPS estimate vs TTM, not a multi-year CAGR.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | 18.0% | 17.1% | 16.1% | 15.0% | 13.8% |
| 8.3% | 20.6% | 19.8% | 19.0% | 18.1% | 17.1% |
| 9.3% | 23.0% | 22.3% | 21.6% | 20.8% | 20.0% |
| 10.3% | 25.2% | 24.6% | 24.0% | 23.3% | 22.6% |
| 11.3% | 27.4% | 26.8% | 26.3% | 25.7% | 25.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$15.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.94
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Smurfit Westrock (SW) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.