Molson Coors Beverage (TAP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.37), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TAP sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 28, 2026 (±6 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.37in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.37 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.45% | +0.19pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.76% | -0.64pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±6 days.
| Dividend | $0.48 |
| Per-event yield | 1.02% |
| Annualized yield | 4.81% |
| Previously paid | Mar 6, 2026 ($0.48) |
| Last record date | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 20, 2026 |
TAP Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Molson Coors Beverage (TAP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.48 | -1.70% | $47.10 | >30 | no | no | -11.19% | -6.39% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | -1.25% | $45.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +5.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -0.86% | $49.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.99% | -2.04% | |
| Q2 | $0.47 | 0.44% | $51.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.77% | -1.54% | |
| Q1 | $0.47 | -0.47% | $62.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.62% | -3.53% | |
| Q4 | $0.44 | 3.97% | $61.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.39% | +0.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.44 | -0.39% | $53.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.01% | +5.09% | |
| Q2 | $0.44 | -1.23% | $52.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.94% | -5.47% | |
| Q1 | $0.44 | -0.52% | $62.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.18% | +2.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.41 | -0.18% | $60.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.40% | +4.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.41 | -0.41% | $63.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.95% | +1.54% | |
| Q2 | $0.41 | -0.55% | $61.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.99% | +8.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.41 | -0.92% | $53.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.96% | +0.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.53% | $55.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.72% | -3.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -1.37% | $51.67 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.71% | +1.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -0.51% | $54.72 | 4 | yes | yes | -8.06% | -3.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -2.39% | $51.12 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.88% | +0.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | 0.75% | $43.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.75% | +4.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -0.40% | $47.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.56% | +0.32% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | -3.91% | $50.12 | >30 | no | no | -27.53% | -13.95% |
- -6.39%
- +5.49%
- -2.04%
- -1.54%
- -3.53%
- +0.18%
- +5.09%
- -5.47%
- +2.50%
- +4.06%
- +1.54%
- +8.02%
- +0.79%
- -3.76%
- +1.70%
- -3.53%
- +0.16%
- +4.39%
- +0.32%
- -13.95%
TAP Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
TAP Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TAP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $96.00
- After-tax dividend
- $62.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$9.42
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$52.98
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.56%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~28.3%
TAP Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TAP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TAP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -13.95% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +1.03% | |
| -6.39% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.