TKO Group Holdings (TKO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 93% of the last 14 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.13), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TKO sits roughly in line with the Communication Services sector benchmark of 90%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 93%+3pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.13-0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 14 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 93% | +3pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.13 | -0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.55% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.41% | +1.34pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 1 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.79 |
| Per-event yield | 0.41% |
| Annualized yield | 1.55% |
| Previously paid | Mar 16, 2026 ($0.78) |
| Last record date | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
TKO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for TKO Group Holdings (TKO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.78 | 0.41% | $194.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.55% | +0.25% | |
| Q4 | $0.78 | -0.95% | $208.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.27% | +3.77% | |
| Q3 | $0.76 | 2.01% | $202.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.84% | -0.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -0.85% | $163.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.82% | +7.31% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | 0.84% | $140.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.97% | +6.68% | |
| Q3 | $3.86 | -8.18% | $104.73 | >30 | no | no | -23.20% | -17.57% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | 0.26% | $101.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +0.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | 0.45% | $80.16 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.32% | +7.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | -0.84% | $73.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.57% | -4.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | -0.06% | $68.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.12% | -1.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | 0.23% | $63.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.03% | -5.36% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | -0.39% | $56.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.43% | +5.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | -0.87% | $48.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.51% | -0.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | 0.26% | $53.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.33% | +3.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | -0.30% | $62.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.90% | -7.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | -0.63% | $58.28 | 9 | no | yes | -5.34% | -1.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | 0.56% | $44.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.11% | +4.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | 1.74% | $41.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.50% | -4.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | 1.66% | $43.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.39% | +3.16% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | -7.02% | $38.72 | 7 | no | yes | -24.84% | -6.64% |
- +0.25%
- +3.77%
- -0.99%
- +7.31%
- +6.68%
- -17.57%
- +0.14%
- +7.58%
- -4.29%
- -1.45%
- -5.36%
- +5.49%
- -0.85%
- +3.43%
- -7.43%
- -1.78%
- +4.66%
- -4.64%
- +3.16%
- -6.64%
TKO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
TKO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TKO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $158.00
- After-tax dividend
- $102.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$38.91
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$63.79
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.16%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~8.3%
TKO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TKO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TKO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -6.64% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.27% | |
| -1.78% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.12% | |
| -17.57% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.40% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.