Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TKO is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$50.00
Method range
$33.69 – $234.67
median $91.07
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $50.00 | -75.43% |
| Exit multiple | $132.14 | -35.06% |
| Analyst target | $234.67 | +15.32% |
| Graham number | $33.69 | -83.44% |
- Forward DCF$50.00
- Exit multiple$132.14
- Analyst target$234.67
- Graham number$33.69
Stock price
$203.49
FCF / share (TTM)
$8.72
3Y FCF CAGR
37.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$2478.55
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
4.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 91.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
37.4%
Your model implies
4.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 37% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 7.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | 0.6% | -0.5% | -1.8% | -3.3% | -5.1% |
| 6.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | -0.9% |
| 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$3.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.60
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
TKO Group Holdings (TKO) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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