Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.03), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TMO sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.03-0.12 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.03 | -0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.25% | +0.58pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.11% | +1.29pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Next ex-dividend
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
TMO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.47 | 0.64% | $475.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.69% | -0.22% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | 0.34% | $572.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.10% | +0.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -0.14% | $479.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.60% | -0.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -1.19% | $415.33 | 12 | no | yes | -7.19% | -3.54% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | 0.22% | $508.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.17% | +1.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.26% | $525.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.07% | -0.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | 0.11% | $614.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.96% | -0.01% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | 0.04% | $572.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.72% | -1.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -0.39% | $593.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.29% | -1.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | 2.12% | $518.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.57% | +1.61% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | 0.83% | $510.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.13% | -1.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | 0.34% | $526.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.32% | +0.50% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | 1.66% | $541.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.31% | +2.86% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.40% | $571.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.99% | -5.46% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 0.50% | $559.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.69% | -6.04% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.35% | $511.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.75% | +1.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | 0.82% | $535.88 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.72% | +9.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.93% | $646.01 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.35% | -0.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | 0.73% | $559.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.69% | +6.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | -0.10% | $465.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.38% | +4.01% |
- -0.22%
- +0.67%
- -0.84%
- -3.54%
- +1.82%
- -0.11%
- -0.01%
- -1.10%
- -1.48%
- +1.61%
- -1.75%
- +0.50%
- +2.86%
- -5.46%
- -6.04%
- +1.49%
- +9.66%
- -0.06%
- +6.83%
- +4.01%
TMO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
TMO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TMO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $94.00
- After-tax dividend
- $61.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$95.18
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-34.08
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.04%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.04%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-1.8%
TMO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TMO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TMO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.06% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.08% | |
| -3.54% | |
| +0.09% | |
| +0.08% | |
| +0.10% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.