Toll Brothers (TOL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.09), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TOL sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 9, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.09
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.09 | -0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.25% | +0.17pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 63% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.09% | +1.41pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
- 30-day touch rate100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)0.09-0.12 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date-0.25%+0.17pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit63%—
- Median drawdown during hold-3.09%+1.41pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)1 / 8—
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
Dividend
$0.26
Per-event yield
0.18%
Annualized yield
0.68%
Previously paid
Jul 10, 2026 ($0.26)
Last record date
Jul 10, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 24, 2026
TOL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Toll Brothers (TOL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.26 | 1.42% | $148.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.74% | — | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | 0.00% | $140.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.16% | +4.78% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 2.14% | $135.56 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.73% | +8.39% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 0.60% | $128.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +5.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -1.55% | $122.63 | 8 | no | yes | -7.43% | -4.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -1.44% | $92.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.09% | -0.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.97% | $127.03 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +6.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | 0.38% | $149.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +7.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -0.84% | $111.99 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.79% | +10.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | 1.16% | $126.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.58% | -4.35% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | -1.11% | $103.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.43% | -1.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.66% | $71.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.35% | -0.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.72% | $77.66 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.03% | +5.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | -0.68% | $59.10 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.40% | +1.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -1.68% | $51.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.26% | +8.37% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.84% | $45.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.13% | -5.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | 0.21% | $47.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.77% | +0.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -0.43% | $46.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.15% | +0.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | -0.06% | $69.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.14% | -3.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | 0.14% | $57.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.31% | +5.19% |
- —
- +4.78%
- +8.39%
- +5.62%
- -4.47%
- -0.39%
- +6.58%
- +7.20%
- +10.17%
- -4.35%
- -1.76%
- -0.67%
- +5.83%
- +1.49%
- +8.37%
- -5.05%
- +0.93%
- +0.17%
- -3.08%
- +5.19%
TOL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
- ≤ 1 day1575%
- 2–3 days315%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+00%
TOL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TOL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $52.00
- After-tax dividend
- $33.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$29.65
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$4.15
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.01%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~0.7%
TOL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TOL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.03%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+0.61%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+169.88%
Best event
+0.44%
Worst event
-4.47%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TOL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.30% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.27% | |
| -4.47% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.