Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TOL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,172.74
Method range
$74.09 – $1,172.74
median $135.56
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,172.74 | +750.36% |
| Exit multiple | $104.33 | -24.35% |
| Analyst target | $166.78 | +20.93% |
| Graham number | $74.09 | -46.28% |
- Forward DCF$1,172.74
- Exit multiple$104.33
- Analyst target$166.78
- Graham number$74.09
Stock price
$137.91
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.16
3Y FCF CAGR
1.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$12.03
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
36.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1046.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
1.1%
Your model implies
36.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 1% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | 32.5% | 31.8% | 31.0% | 30.2% | 29.3% |
| 10.5% | 35.0% | 34.3% | 33.7% | 32.9% | 32.1% |
| 11.5% | 37.3% | 36.7% | 36.1% | 35.5% | 34.8% |
| 12.5% | 39.5% | 39.0% | 38.4% | 37.9% | 37.2% |
| 13.5% | 41.7% | 41.2% | 40.7% | 40.1% | 39.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.53
Low vs growth
Net debt
$1.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.39
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Toll Brothers (TOL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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