T. Rowe Price (TROW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.49), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TROW sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.49+0.18 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.49 | +0.18 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.67% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 70% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.16% | +1.22pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 18 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $1.30 |
| Per-event yield | 1.47% |
| Annualized yield | 4.73% |
| Previously paid | Mar 16, 2026 ($1.30) |
| Last record date | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 30, 2026 |
TROW Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for T. Rowe Price (TROW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.30 | -0.36% | $88.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.80% | +0.78% | |
| Q4 | $1.27 | -0.88% | $104.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.21% | +1.12% | |
| Q3 | $1.27 | -0.94% | $105.63 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.78% | +0.88% | |
| Q2 | $1.27 | -2.62% | $94.58 | 7 | no | yes | -4.05% | +0.72% | |
| Q1 | $1.27 | 0.08% | $92.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.73% | +2.24% | |
| Q4 | $1.24 | -0.98% | $120.96 | >30 | no | no | -7.32% | -2.98% | |
| Q3 | $1.24 | -0.46% | $104.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.59% | +4.44% | |
| Q2 | $1.24 | -2.33% | $116.57 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.75% | +3.05% | |
| Q1 | $1.24 | -0.88% | $117.60 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.37% | +3.55% | |
| Q4 | $1.22 | 0.82% | $103.21 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.72% | +4.75% | |
| Q3 | $1.22 | -0.32% | $109.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.99% | -1.53% | |
| Q2 | $1.22 | -0.87% | $111.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.03% | -3.63% | |
| Q1 | $1.22 | 2.28% | $106.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.83% | +4.74% | |
| Q4 | $1.20 | -3.58% | $118.58 | 18 | no | yes | -9.21% | -5.99% | |
| Q3 | $1.20 | -0.59% | $116.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.55% | -4.24% | |
| Q2 | $1.20 | -0.38% | $107.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.95% | +4.29% | |
| Q1 | $1.20 | 0.22% | $136.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.57% | +7.73% | |
| Q4 | $1.08 | -0.47% | $190.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.69% | +1.64% | |
| Q3 | $1.08 | -0.20% | $216.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.47% | -5.56% | |
| Q2 | $3.00 | -0.85% | $196.54 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +3.26% |
- +0.78%
- +1.12%
- +0.88%
- +0.72%
- +2.24%
- -2.98%
- +4.44%
- +3.05%
- +3.55%
- +4.75%
- -1.53%
- -3.63%
- +4.74%
- -5.99%
- -4.24%
- +4.29%
- +7.73%
- +1.64%
- -5.56%
- +3.26%
TROW Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
TROW Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TROW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $260.00
- After-tax dividend
- $169.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$17.72
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$151.28
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.85%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~43.0%
TROW Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TROW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TROW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.53% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.03% | |
| -5.99% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +1.09% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +1.18% | |
| -2.98% | |
| +1.38% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +1.20% | |
| +1.21% | |
| +1.47% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.