Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TRV is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$3,259.36
Method range
$163.06 – $3,259.36
median $301.28
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $3,259.36 | +974.81% |
| Exit multiple | $287.77 | -5.11% |
| Analyst target | $314.80 | +3.81% |
| Graham number | $163.06 | -46.23% |
- Forward DCF$3,259.36
- Exit multiple$287.77
- Analyst target$314.80
- Graham number$163.06
Stock price
$303.25
FCF / share (TTM)
$10.21
3Y FCF CAGR
12.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$509.63
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
6.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 40.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
12.6%
Your model implies
6.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 13% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | -0.7% | -2.5% | -4.9% |
| 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% |
| 8.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% |
| 9.1% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$8.6B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.51
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Travelers Companies (TRV) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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