Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TWLO is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$8,640,941,287.31
Method range
$26.07 – $8,640,941,287.31
median $1,742.35
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $8,640,941,287.31 | +3,823,594,433.97% |
| Exit multiple | $3,292.44 | +1,356.90% |
| Analyst target | $192.25 | -14.93% |
| Graham number | $26.07 | -88.47% |
- Forward DCF$8,640,941,287.31
- Exit multiple$3,292.44
- Analyst target$192.25
- Graham number$26.07
Stock price
$225.99
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.87
3Y FCF CAGR
80.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1519.18
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
48.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 85.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
80.6%
Your model implies
48.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 81% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 9.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4% | 44.1% | 43.3% | 42.4% | 41.4% | 40.4% |
| 10.4% | 46.8% | 46.1% | 45.3% | 44.4% | 43.6% |
| 11.4% | 49.4% | 48.7% | 48.0% | 47.3% | 46.5% |
| 12.4% | 51.8% | 51.2% | 50.6% | 49.9% | 49.2% |
| 13.4% | 54.2% | 53.6% | 53.1% | 52.4% | 51.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$399M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.38
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Twilio (TWLO) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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