Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TWLO is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$8,736,127,607.40
Method range
$26.07 – $8,736,127,607.40
median $1,767.66
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $8,736,127,607.40 | +4,763,947,771.85% |
| Exit multiple | $3,314.40 | +1,707.39% |
| Analyst target | $220.92 | +20.47% |
| Graham number | $26.07 | -85.79% |
- Forward DCF$8,736,127,607.40
- Exit multiple$3,314.40
- Analyst target$220.92
- Graham number$26.07
Stock price
$183.38
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.87
3Y FCF CAGR
80.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1,511.08
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
44.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 87.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
80.6%
Your model implies
44.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 81% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 8.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | 41.0% | 40.2% | 39.3% | 38.4% | 37.4% |
| 10.5% | 43.6% | 42.9% | 42.2% | 41.4% | 40.5% |
| 11.5% | 46.1% | 45.5% | 44.8% | 44.1% | 43.3% |
| 12.5% | 48.5% | 47.9% | 47.3% | 46.7% | 46.0% |
| 13.5% | 50.8% | 50.3% | 49.7% | 49.1% | 48.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$399M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.36
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Twilio (TWLO) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.