UGI dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 85% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
UGI (UGI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.51), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, UGI sits noticeably below the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
85%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.51
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 85% | -10pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.51 | +0.05 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.71% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.90% | -1.16pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 19 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.38
Per-event yield
1.07%
Annualized yield
4.37%
Previously paid
Jun 15, 2026 ($0.38)
Last record date
Jun 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 1, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for UGI (UGI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.38 | -1.71% | $35.03 | 8 | no | yes | -4.74% | +0.19% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -0.13% | $37.13 | 10 | no | yes | -5.06% | -2.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.42% | $38.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.18% | +2.08% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -1.04% | $34.76 | >30 | no | no | -6.56% | -4.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -0.44% | $36.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | +1.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -1.15% | $33.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.11% | +1.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -1.93% | $28.55 | 12 | no | yes | -6.37% | -2.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -1.25% | $24.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.25% | +3.23% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -2.05% | $22.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.09% | +4.25% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -2.91% | $25.45 | 17 | no | yes | -7.11% | -2.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.04% | $23.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.74% | +4.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -0.04% | $23.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.06% | +4.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -1.18% | $28.76 | >30 | no | no | -8.07% | -5.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | 1.23% | $35.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.36% | +2.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -0.72% | $39.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.57% | -2.92% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | -0.91% | $38.62 | >30 | no | no | -15.77% | -7.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | -0.64% | $40.54 | 19 | no | yes | -7.60% | -4.42% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | 1.57% | $33.11 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.94% | +7.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.49% | $45.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.12% | +0.65% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | 0.00% | $45.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.48% | -5.45% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
Pre-filled with UGI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical UGI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.68%
Win rate (20 trades)
65%
Cumulative P&L
-13.52%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-7.43%
Best event
+1.67%
Worst event
-7.17%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · UGI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.77% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +1.04% | |
| -4.42% | |
| -7.17% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +1.03% | |
| -5.06% | |
| +1.58% | |
| +1.63% | |
| -2.34% | |
| +1.67% | |
| +1.56% | |
| -2.15% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.04% | |
| -4.59% | |
| +0.98% | |
| -2.09% | |
| +0.19% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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