UGI (UGI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 84% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.51), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, UGI sits noticeably below the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 84%-11pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.51+0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 84% | -11pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.51 | +0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.66% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.10% | -1.26pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 19 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.38 |
| Per-event yield | 1.01% |
| Annualized yield | 4.37% |
| Previously paid | Mar 16, 2026 ($0.38) |
| Last record date | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
UGI Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for UGI (UGI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.38 | -0.13% | $37.13 | 10 | no | yes | -5.06% | -2.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.42% | $38.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.18% | +2.08% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -1.04% | $34.76 | >30 | no | no | -6.56% | -4.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -0.44% | $36.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | +1.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -1.15% | $33.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.11% | +1.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -1.93% | $28.55 | 12 | no | yes | -6.37% | -2.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -1.25% | $24.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.25% | +3.23% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -2.05% | $22.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.09% | +4.25% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -2.91% | $25.45 | 17 | no | yes | -7.11% | -2.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.04% | $23.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.74% | +4.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -0.04% | $23.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.06% | +4.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -1.18% | $28.76 | >30 | no | no | -8.07% | -5.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | 1.23% | $35.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.36% | +2.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -0.72% | $39.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.57% | -2.92% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | -0.91% | $38.62 | >30 | no | no | -15.77% | -7.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | -0.64% | $40.54 | 19 | no | yes | -7.60% | -4.42% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | 1.57% | $33.11 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.94% | +7.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | -0.49% | $45.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.12% | +0.65% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | 0.00% | $45.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.48% | -5.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -0.34% | $47.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.13% | -2.36% |
- -2.09%
- +2.08%
- -4.59%
- +1.84%
- +1.19%
- -2.15%
- +3.23%
- +4.25%
- -2.34%
- +4.85%
- +4.21%
- -5.06%
- +2.14%
- -2.92%
- -7.17%
- -4.42%
- +7.48%
- +0.65%
- -5.45%
- -2.36%
UGI Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
UGI Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with UGI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $76.00
- After-tax dividend
- $49.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$7.43
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$41.97
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.57%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~28.5%
UGI Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical UGI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · UGI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.72% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +1.04% | |
| -4.42% | |
| -7.17% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +1.03% | |
| -5.06% | |
| +1.58% | |
| +1.63% | |
| -2.34% | |
| +1.67% | |
| +1.56% | |
| -2.15% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.04% | |
| -4.59% | |
| +0.98% | |
| -2.09% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.