Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what UGI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$47.46
Method range
$27.83 – $47.46
median $40.03
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $47.46 | +28.87% |
| Exit multiple | $27.83 | -24.42% |
| Analyst target | $43.00 | +16.75% |
| Graham number | $37.06 | +0.64% |
- Forward DCF$47.46
- Exit multiple$27.83
- Analyst target$43.00
- Graham number$37.06
Stock price
$36.83
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.30
3Y FCF CAGR
-16.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$8.98
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
3.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -310.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-16.9%
Your model implies
3.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -17% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | 0.6% | -0.1% | -0.8% | -1.6% | -2.6% |
| 8.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 9.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| 10.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% |
| 11.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.05
Low vs growth
Net debt
$7.21B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.95
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
UGI (UGI) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.50% TTM
- Dividend Profile4.07% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History4 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.