Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what UGI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$48.25
Method range
$28.43 – $48.25
median $40.20
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $48.25 | +38.46% |
| Exit multiple | $28.43 | -18.41% |
| Analyst target | $43.33 | +24.33% |
| Graham number | $37.06 | +6.35% |
- Forward DCF$48.25
- Exit multiple$28.43
- Analyst target$43.33
- Graham number$37.06
Stock price
$34.85
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.30
3Y FCF CAGR
-16.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$9.06
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
2.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -284.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-16.9%
Your model implies
2.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -17% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | -0.3% | -1.0% | -1.8% | -2.6% | -3.6% |
| 8.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | -0.2% | -0.9% |
| 9.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| 10.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% |
| 11.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.05
Low vs growth
Net debt
$7.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.95
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
UGI (UGI) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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