Vulcan Materials (VMC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.08), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, VMC sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 13, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.08-0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.08 | -0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.26% | +0.16pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 35% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.66% | +1.05pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 17 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.52 |
| Per-event yield | 0.19% |
| Annualized yield | 0.77% |
| Previously paid | Mar 9, 2026 ($0.52) |
| Last record date | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 23, 2026 |
VMC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Vulcan Materials (VMC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.52 | -1.16% | $274.99 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.23% | -3.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -0.02% | $287.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.26% | -2.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | -0.88% | $295.64 | 17 | no | yes | -4.07% | -2.32% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -1.22% | $271.68 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.32% | -2.87% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -1.59% | $220.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.63% | +6.64% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.10% | $270.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.00% | +8.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | 1.39% | $242.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.06% | +2.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | 0.38% | $260.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.93% | -1.78% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | 0.46% | $265.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.12% | +0.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | 0.48% | $209.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.32% | +1.70% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -0.33% | $224.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.08% | -2.97% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | 0.08% | $194.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.30% | +4.67% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | 0.20% | $181.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.05% | -6.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.61% | $178.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.06% | -0.00% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.82% | $177.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.91% | -3.57% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | 1.01% | $160.65 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.24% | +3.54% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -1.98% | $183.48 | 13 | no | yes | -7.60% | -7.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | 0.36% | $202.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.99% | -1.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.55% | $187.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.33% | -0.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | 1.31% | $183.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.94% | -2.15% |
- -3.10%
- -2.34%
- -2.32%
- -2.87%
- +6.64%
- +8.18%
- +2.45%
- -1.78%
- +0.49%
- +1.70%
- -2.97%
- +4.67%
- -6.57%
- -0.00%
- -3.57%
- +3.54%
- -7.03%
- -1.85%
- -0.56%
- -2.15%
VMC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
VMC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with VMC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $104.00
- After-tax dividend
- $67.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$55.00
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$12.60
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.02%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~1.2%
VMC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical VMC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · VMC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.20% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -7.03% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -2.32% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.19% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.