Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what VMC is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$249.65
Method range
$42.52 – $322.60
median $281.19
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $249.65 | -11.27% |
| Exit multiple | $312.73 | +11.14% |
| Analyst target | $322.60 | +14.65% |
| Graham number | $42.52 | -84.89% |
- Forward DCF$249.65
- Exit multiple$312.73
- Analyst target$322.60
- Graham number$42.52
Stock price
$281.38
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.49
3Y FCF CAGR
19.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$23.49
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
56.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1097.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
19.6%
Your model implies
56.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 20% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | 51.9% | 50.8% | 49.6% | 48.3% | 46.9% |
| 9.0% | 55.2% | 54.2% | 53.2% | 52.1% | 50.9% |
| 10.0% | 58.3% | 57.4% | 56.5% | 55.5% | 54.5% |
| 11.0% | 61.2% | 60.4% | 59.6% | 58.7% | 57.8% |
| 12.0% | 63.9% | 63.2% | 62.5% | 61.7% | 60.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$5.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.09
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Vulcan Materials (VMC) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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