WM dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Waste Management (WM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.27), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, WM sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.27
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.27 | +0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.11% | +0.23pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -1.96% | +2.07pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.95
Per-event yield
0.43%
Annualized yield
1.61%
Previously paid
Jun 5, 2026 ($0.95)
Last record date
Jun 5, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 18, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Waste Management (WM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.95 | 0.15% | $219.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.10% | +0.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | 0.02% | $238.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.18% | -2.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.83 | -0.52% | $214.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.01% | +1.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -0.34% | $220.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.08% | -1.49% | |
| Q2 | $0.83 | -0.27% | $238.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.41% | -0.55% | |
| Q1 | $0.83 | -0.36% | $223.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +1.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.13% | $224.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.70% | -4.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -0.24% | $207.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.64% | -1.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.04% | $202.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +0.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -0.13% | $211.00 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.07% | +1.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -0.13% | $169.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.60% | +2.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.30% | $155.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.44% | +3.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.07% | $161.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.03% | +0.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | 0.07% | $149.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.84% | +4.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | 0.55% | $167.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.75% | -0.63% | |
| Q3 | $0.65 | -0.70% | $173.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.34% | -1.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.65 | -0.11% | $158.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.65% | -2.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.65 | -0.16% | $155.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | -0.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | 0.29% | $160.51 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.02% | +1.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | 0.03% | $155.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | -0.53% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 19 | 95% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with WM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical WM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.39%
Win rate (20 trades)
100%
Cumulative P&L
+7.80%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+50.88%
Best event
+0.47%
Worst event
+0.33%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · WM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.43% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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