Waste Management (WM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.27), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, WM sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.27+0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.27 | +0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.12% | +0.24pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -1.85% | +2.18pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.94 |
| Per-event yield | 0.40% |
| Annualized yield | 1.61% |
| Previously paid | Mar 13, 2026 ($0.94) |
| Last record date | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 27, 2026 |
WM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Waste Management (WM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.94 | 0.02% | $238.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.18% | -2.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.82 | -0.52% | $214.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.01% | +1.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.82 | -0.34% | $220.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.08% | -1.49% | |
| Q2 | $0.82 | -0.27% | $238.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.41% | -0.55% | |
| Q1 | $0.82 | -0.36% | $223.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +1.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.13% | $224.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.70% | -4.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -0.24% | $207.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.64% | -1.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.04% | $202.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +0.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -0.13% | $211.00 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.07% | +1.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -0.13% | $169.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.60% | +2.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.30% | $155.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.44% | +3.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.07% | $161.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.03% | +0.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | 0.07% | $149.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.84% | +4.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | 0.55% | $167.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.75% | -0.63% | |
| Q3 | $0.65 | -0.70% | $173.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.34% | -1.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.65 | -0.11% | $158.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.65% | -2.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.65 | -0.16% | $155.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | -0.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | 0.29% | $160.51 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.02% | +1.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | 0.03% | $155.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | -0.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -0.45% | $141.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.60% | -0.44% |
- -2.69%
- +1.05%
- -1.49%
- -0.55%
- +1.14%
- -4.51%
- -1.45%
- +0.93%
- +1.03%
- +2.24%
- +3.26%
- +0.84%
- +4.28%
- -0.63%
- -1.18%
- -2.86%
- -0.63%
- +1.78%
- -0.53%
- -0.44%
WM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 19 | 95% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
WM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with WM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $190.00
- After-tax dividend
- $123.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$47.72
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$75.78
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.16%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~8.0%
WM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical WM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · WM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.41% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.40% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.