Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what XOM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$495.55
Method range
$36.99 – $495.55
median $144.16
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $495.55 | +230.54% |
| Exit multiple | $118.24 | -21.13% |
| Analyst target | $170.08 | +13.45% |
| Graham number | $36.99 | -75.33% |
- Forward DCF$495.55
- Exit multiple$118.24
- Analyst target$170.08
- Graham number$36.99
Stock price
$149.92
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.53
3Y FCF CAGR
-10.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$6.46
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
27.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -2222.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-10.2%
Your model implies
27.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 29.8% | 28.0% | 25.8% | 23.2% | 19.8% |
| 5.0% | 29.8% | 28.0% | 25.8% | 23.2% | 19.8% |
| 5.3% | 31.1% | 29.4% | 27.4% | 25.1% | 22.2% |
| 6.3% | 35.1% | 33.8% | 32.3% | 30.5% | 28.5% |
| 7.3% | 38.7% | 37.5% | 36.3% | 34.9% | 33.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$32.9B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.15
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Exxon Mobil (XOM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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