Xylem (XYL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.14), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, XYL sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 27, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.14in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.14 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.22% | +0.13pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.52% | +0.51pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 23 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
| Dividend | $0.43 |
| Per-event yield | 0.34% |
| Annualized yield | 1.52% |
| Previously paid | Feb 24, 2026 ($0.43) |
| Last record date | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 24, 2026 |
XYL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Xylem (XYL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.43 | 0.29% | $127.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.96% | +0.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.37% | $141.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.53% | -0.38% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.08% | $144.62 | 23 | no | yes | -5.73% | -2.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | 0.41% | $125.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +1.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.05% | $129.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.43% | -0.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -0.52% | $128.94 | 9 | no | yes | -3.51% | -0.81% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | 0.28% | $135.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.91% | -6.44% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | 0.07% | $137.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.76% | -0.52% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | -0.73% | $123.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +1.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | -0.24% | $101.16 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.09% | +1.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.33 | -0.06% | $102.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.88% | -6.12% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | -0.25% | $98.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.83% | +7.69% | |
| Q1 | $0.33 | -1.30% | $107.29 | >30 | no | no | -6.90% | -4.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.78% | $112.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.55% | -2.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 0.37% | $91.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.35% | +5.89% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -1.39% | $81.95 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.70% | +5.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.93% | $91.03 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.91% | -3.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | 0.29% | $129.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.37% | -5.97% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | 0.02% | $133.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.54% | +2.14% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.21% | $116.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.62% | +1.72% |
- +0.28%
- -0.38%
- -2.53%
- +1.12%
- -0.71%
- -0.81%
- -6.44%
- -0.52%
- +1.83%
- +1.79%
- -6.12%
- +7.69%
- -4.02%
- -2.18%
- +5.89%
- +5.93%
- -3.33%
- -5.97%
- +2.14%
- +1.72%
XYL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
XYL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with XYL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $86.00
- After-tax dividend
- $55.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$25.45
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$30.45
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.12%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~6.0%
XYL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical XYL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · XYL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.24% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.27% | |
| -4.02% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.27% | |
| -0.81% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.32% | |
| -2.53% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.34% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.