Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what YUM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$301.27
Method range
$165.08 – $301.27
median $178.00
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $301.27 | +99.69% |
| Exit multiple | $165.08 | +9.42% |
| Analyst target | $178.00 | +17.98% |
| Graham number | — | — |
- Forward DCF$301.27
- Exit multiple$165.08
- Analyst target$178.00
- Graham number—
Stock price
$150.87
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.23
3Y FCF CAGR
4.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$29.87
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
25.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -405.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
4.8%
Your model implies
25.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 5% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | 21.2% | 19.8% | 18.2% | 16.2% | 13.9% |
| 6.6% | 24.7% | 23.6% | 22.3% | 20.8% | 19.2% |
| 7.6% | 27.8% | 26.8% | 25.8% | 24.6% | 23.3% |
| 8.6% | 30.6% | 29.8% | 28.9% | 27.9% | 26.8% |
| 9.6% | 33.2% | 32.5% | 31.7% | 30.8% | 29.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$11.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.60
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Yum! Brands (YUM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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