Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.29), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ADM sits noticeably below the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 19, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.29-0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.29 | -0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.62% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.39% | +0.72pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 22 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
| Dividend | $0.52 |
| Per-event yield | 0.75% |
| Annualized yield | 2.66% |
| Previously paid | Feb 17, 2026 ($0.52) |
| Last record date | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 10, 2026 |
ADM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.52 | -1.06% | $69.51 | 10 | no | yes | -5.22% | -1.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -1.20% | $61.03 | 6 | no | yes | -6.93% | +0.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.30% | $59.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.52% | +5.44% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.96% | $50.16 | 17 | no | yes | -6.66% | -2.55% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -1.30% | $46.10 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.80% | +6.88% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.88% | $53.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.74% | +2.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.46% | $59.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.66% | +4.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.84% | $61.67 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.05% | +1.18% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -1.39% | $53.37 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +0.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | 0.00% | $73.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.25% | +1.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -0.98% | $84.94 | >30 | no | no | -6.18% | -4.38% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -1.06% | $76.06 | >30 | no | no | -6.71% | -0.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.45 | -0.81% | $82.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.86% | -0.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.42% | $94.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.40% | +4.02% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.49% | $86.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.73% | +2.69% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | 0.52% | $87.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.57% | +1.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | 0.26% | $75.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.23% | +1.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -0.33% | $66.95 | 6 | no | yes | -7.09% | +0.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.91% | $62.68 | 22 | no | yes | -6.67% | -4.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | -0.43% | $67.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.80% | -1.01% |
- -1.40%
- +0.05%
- +5.44%
- -2.55%
- +6.88%
- +2.95%
- +4.15%
- +1.18%
- +0.75%
- +1.56%
- -4.38%
- -0.74%
- -0.57%
- +4.02%
- +2.69%
- +1.12%
- +1.07%
- +0.25%
- -4.31%
- -1.01%
ADM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 10 | 50% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
ADM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ADM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $104.00
- After-tax dividend
- $67.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$13.90
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$53.70
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.39%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~19.5%
ADM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ADM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ADM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.55% | |
| -4.31% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.54% | |
| -0.74% | |
| -4.38% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +1.11% | |
| -2.55% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.05% | |
| -1.40% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.