Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ADM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$21.46
Method range
$21.46 – $75.75
median $42.52
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $21.46 | -75.42% |
| Exit multiple | $59.49 | -31.87% |
| Analyst target | $75.75 | -13.25% |
| Graham number | $25.55 | -70.74% |
- Forward DCF$21.46
- Exit multiple$59.49
- Analyst target$75.75
- Graham number$25.55
Stock price
$87.32
EPS (TTM)
$2.23
5Y EPS CAGR
-6.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$21.46
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
11.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -306.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
-6.7%
Your model implies
11.3%
Analyst consensus for next year implies 108% — beyond the model's annualised scale. Consensus reflects a one-step EPS estimate vs TTM, not a multi-year CAGR.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| 6.7% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% |
| 7.7% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% |
| 8.7% | 15.2% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 12.2% |
| 9.7% | 17.4% | 16.8% | 16.2% | 15.5% | 14.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$7.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.61
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks
- Dividend Profile2.36% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History30 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.