Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ADM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$21.99
Method range
$21.99 – $74.00
median $41.47
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $21.99 | -72.82% |
| Exit multiple | $57.39 | -29.07% |
| Analyst target | $74.00 | -8.55% |
| Graham number | $25.55 | -68.43% |
- Forward DCF$21.99
- Exit multiple$57.39
- Analyst target$74.00
- Graham number$25.55
Stock price
$80.92
EPS (TTM)
$2.23
5Y EPS CAGR
-6.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$21.99
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
9.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -268.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
-6.7%
Your model implies
9.9%
Analyst consensus for next year implies 106% — beyond the model's annualised scale. Consensus reflects a one-step EPS estimate vs TTM, not a multi-year CAGR.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | -0.1% |
| 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% |
| 7.6% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% |
| 8.6% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.8% |
| 9.6% | 16.1% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 13.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$7.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.60
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
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