Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ALLE is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$350.16
Method range
$29.68 – $350.16
median $164.10
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $350.16 | +169.02% |
| Exit multiple | $165.86 | +27.43% |
| Analyst target | $162.33 | +24.72% |
| Graham number | $29.68 | -77.20% |
- Forward DCF$350.16
- Exit multiple$165.86
- Analyst target$162.33
- Graham number$29.68
Stock price
$130.16
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.93
3Y FCF CAGR
12.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$32.45
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
31.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -301.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
12.8%
Your model implies
31.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 13% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | 27.6% | 26.5% | 25.3% | 23.9% | 22.4% |
| 7.9% | 30.6% | 29.7% | 28.7% | 27.6% | 26.4% |
| 8.9% | 33.4% | 32.6% | 31.7% | 30.8% | 29.8% |
| 9.9% | 36.0% | 35.3% | 34.5% | 33.7% | 32.8% |
| 10.9% | 38.4% | 37.8% | 37.1% | 36.4% | 35.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$1.9B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.88
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Allegion (ALLE) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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