Amcor (AMCR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 84% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 4 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.13), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AMCR sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 26, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 84%-11pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 4d+3.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.13-0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 84% | -11pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 4d | +3.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.13 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.09% | -0.61pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 25% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.69% | +0.99pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 27 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.65 |
| Per-event yield | 1.30% |
| Annualized yield | 6.59% |
| Previously paid | Feb 25, 2026 ($0.65) |
| Last record date | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 17, 2026 |
AMCR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Amcor (AMCR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.65 | -1.67% | $50.18 | >30 | no | no | -18.02% | -7.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | -1.86% | $43.10 | 27 | no | yes | -6.15% | -3.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | -1.08% | $41.75 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.28% | -0.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | -1.20% | $45.90 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.59% | -0.48% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -0.78% | $51.60 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.68% | -2.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | 1.35% | $51.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.93% | +3.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | -1.43% | $56.10 | 13 | no | yes | -3.65% | -1.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | -1.09% | $50.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.17% | -3.13% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -0.77% | $45.70 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.17% | +0.60% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | -1.07% | $46.85 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +1.55% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | -1.58% | $47.40 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.69% | -2.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | -1.36% | $51.35 | 16 | no | yes | -7.21% | -5.90% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | -1.41% | $56.65 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.74% | -3.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | -0.50% | $59.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.83% | +3.21% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | -0.59% | $59.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.47% | -0.73% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | -1.23% | $65.25 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.76% | +1.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | -0.51% | $59.40 | >30 | no | no | -9.18% | -5.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | -0.92% | $59.80 | 16 | no | yes | -5.94% | -5.65% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | -3.00% | $63.40 | >30 | no | no | -8.12% | -2.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | -1.42% | $59.70 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.35% | -0.47% |
- -7.27%
- -3.41%
- -0.53%
- -0.48%
- -2.18%
- +3.15%
- -1.83%
- -3.13%
- +0.60%
- +1.55%
- -2.59%
- -5.90%
- -3.40%
- +3.21%
- -0.73%
- +1.26%
- -5.02%
- -5.65%
- -2.65%
- -0.47%
AMCR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 4 | 20% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
AMCR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AMCR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $130.00
- After-tax dividend
- $84.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.04
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$74.46
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.74%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~37.4%
AMCR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AMCR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AMCR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.20% | |
| -2.65% | |
| -5.65% | |
| -5.02% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.22% | |
| -5.90% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.25% | |
| -1.83% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.31% | |
| -3.41% | |
| -7.27% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.