Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AMSF is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$23.16
Method range
$23.16 – $34.00
median $31.52
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $23.16 | -25.66% |
| Exit multiple | $30.46 | -2.23% |
| Analyst target | $34.00 | +9.15% |
| Graham number | $32.59 | +4.62% |
- Forward DCF$23.16
- Exit multiple$30.46
- Analyst target$34.00
- Graham number$32.59
Stock price
$31.15
EPS (TTM)
$2.48
5Y EPS CAGR
-11.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$23.16
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
-7.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -34.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
-11.2%
Your model implies
-7.6%
Next-year analyst consensus
-17.8%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | -8.3% | -9.5% | -10.8% | -12.5% | -14.6% |
| 5.0% | -8.3% | -9.5% | -10.8% | -12.5% | -14.6% |
| 6.0% | -5.8% | -6.6% | -7.6% | -8.8% | -10.1% |
| 7.0% | -3.5% | -4.2% | -4.9% | -5.8% | -6.8% |
| 8.0% | -1.4% | -2.0% | -2.6% | -3.3% | -4.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.13
Low vs growth
Net cash
$61.9M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.26
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
AMERISAFE (AMSF) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.