Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AMSF is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$23.15
Method range
$11.33 – $44.50
median $27.27
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $23.15 | -26.99% |
| Exit multiple | $31.40 | -0.94% |
| Analyst target | $44.50 | +40.38% |
| Graham number | $11.33 | -64.25% |
- Forward DCF$23.15
- Exit multiple$31.40
- Analyst target$44.50
- Graham number$11.33
Stock price
$31.70
EPS (TTM)
$2.43
5Y EPS CAGR
-11.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$23.15
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
-7.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -37.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
-11.2%
Your model implies
-7.4%
Next-year analyst consensus
-13.5%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | -7.9% | -9.0% | -10.4% | -12.0% | -14.2% |
| 5.0% | -7.9% | -9.0% | -10.4% | -12.0% | -14.2% |
| 5.9% | -5.5% | -6.4% | -7.4% | -8.6% | -10.0% |
| 6.9% | -3.2% | -3.9% | -4.7% | -5.6% | -6.6% |
| 7.9% | -1.1% | -1.7% | -2.3% | -3.1% | -3.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$62M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.27
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
AMERISAFE (AMSF) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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