A. O. Smith (AOS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.18), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AOS sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.18in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.18 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.30% | +0.66pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 63% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.46% | +1.57pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.36 |
| Per-event yield | 0.57% |
| Annualized yield | 2.30% |
| Previously paid | Apr 30, 2026 ($0.36) |
| Last record date | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 15, 2026 |
AOS Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for A. O. Smith (AOS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.36 | 1.51% | $63.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.58% | — | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | 0.53% | $73.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.53% | +8.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -1.12% | $66.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.67% | -0.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -1.27% | $70.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.84% | +0.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -0.18% | $67.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.84% | +0.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | 0.65% | $67.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.10% | -2.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | -0.66% | $75.91 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.33% | +0.61% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | 0.20% | $85.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.98% | -5.69% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -0.37% | $83.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.78% | +2.72% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | -3.54% | $81.65 | 13 | no | yes | -5.83% | -3.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | 1.33% | $67.81 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.24% | +5.31% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 1.21% | $73.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.82% | -1.00% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | 3.10% | $67.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +2.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -1.24% | $60.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +12.31% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | 0.12% | $51.90 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.04% | +8.44% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | 2.23% | $60.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.56% | +1.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -1.00% | $62.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.05% | -5.85% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.59% | $75.85 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.33% | -2.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | 4.33% | $64.25 | 1 | yes | yes | 4.33% | +21.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | 0.86% | $69.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.36% | +3.17% |
- —
- +8.43%
- -0.12%
- +0.18%
- +0.37%
- -2.69%
- +0.61%
- -5.69%
- +2.72%
- -3.81%
- +5.31%
- -1.00%
- +2.95%
- +12.31%
- +8.44%
- +1.70%
- -5.85%
- -2.62%
- +21.62%
- +3.17%
AOS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
AOS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AOS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $72.00
- After-tax dividend
- $46.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$12.74
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$34.06
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.27%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~13.5%
AOS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AOS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AOS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.37% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.47% | |
| -3.81% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.57% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.