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Fair Value for A. O. Smith (AOS)

See growth priced into A. O. Smith (AOS): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Analysis
Capital Return

How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.

FCF / share

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what AOS is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$101.86

Margin of safety
+41.73% vs current price $59.35

Method range

$16.04 – $101.86

median $73.55

Methods lean undervalued

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$101.86
  • Exit multiple$75.70
  • Analyst target$71.40
  • Graham number$16.04

Stock price

$59.35

FCF / share (TTM)

$0.85

3Y FCF CAGR

2.7%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$11.19

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

25.8%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -430.5% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 3Y CAGR

2.7%

Your model implies

25.8%

Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)10.4%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)3%
3Y CAGR 3%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 3% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
8.4%22.3%21.6%20.7%19.8%18.8%
9.4%24.8%24.1%23.4%22.6%21.7%
10.4%27.0%26.4%25.8%25.1%24.4%
11.4%29.2%28.7%28.1%27.5%26.8%
12.4%31.3%30.8%30.3%29.7%29.1%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday17.3· at low
5Y low17.3
Median22.2
5Y high37.7
P/SToday2.4· at low
5Y low2.4
Median2.6
5Y high3.9
EV/EBITDAToday11.8· at low
5Y low11.8
Median14.8
5Y high28.5

Net debt

$17.6M

Total debt − cash

Beta

1.15

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions

A. O. Smith (AOS) Key Financials

Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric

Operations

Explore more

Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation

Overview
Capital Return

How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.