Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AOS is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$98.92
Method range
$16.04 – $98.92
median $74.32
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $98.92 | +72.93% |
| Exit multiple | $75.97 | +32.81% |
| Analyst target | $72.67 | +27.05% |
| Graham number | $16.04 | -71.95% |
- Forward DCF$98.92
- Exit multiple$75.97
- Analyst target$72.67
- Graham number$16.04
Stock price
$57.20
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.85
3Y FCF CAGR
2.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$10.91
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
25.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -424.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
2.7%
Your model implies
25.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 3% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | 22.3% | 21.6% | 20.8% | 19.9% | 18.9% |
| 9.6% | 24.7% | 24.1% | 23.4% | 22.6% | 21.8% |
| 10.6% | 26.9% | 26.4% | 25.7% | 25.1% | 24.4% |
| 11.6% | 29.1% | 28.5% | 28.0% | 27.4% | 26.8% |
| 12.6% | 31.1% | 30.6% | 30.1% | 29.6% | 29.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$18M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.22
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
A. O. Smith (AOS) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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