Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AVY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$414.40
Method range
$38.31 – $414.40
median $202.56
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $414.40 | +167.04% |
| Exit multiple | $198.32 | +27.80% |
| Analyst target | $206.80 | +33.26% |
| Graham number | $38.31 | -75.31% |
- Forward DCF$414.40
- Exit multiple$198.32
- Analyst target$206.80
- Graham number$38.31
Stock price
$155.18
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.41
3Y FCF CAGR
-0.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$18.97
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
27.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -718.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-0.1%
Your model implies
27.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -0% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | 23.8% | 22.7% | 21.4% | 20.1% | 18.5% |
| 7.7% | 26.8% | 25.8% | 24.8% | 23.7% | 22.5% |
| 8.7% | 29.5% | 28.7% | 27.8% | 26.9% | 25.9% |
| 9.7% | 32.0% | 31.3% | 30.6% | 29.8% | 28.9% |
| 10.7% | 34.4% | 33.8% | 33.1% | 32.4% | 31.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
14.17
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$3.5B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.83
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Avery Dennison (AVY) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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