CAG dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Conagra Brands (CAG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.58), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CAG sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 29, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.58
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.58 | +0.20 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.22% | -0.58pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 42% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.39% | -0.40pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
Dividend
$0.18
Per-event yield
1.13%
Annualized yield
8.15%
Previously paid
Jul 30, 2026 ($0.18)
Last record date
Jul 30, 2026
Last payment date
Sep 2, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Conagra Brands (CAG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.18 | -3.29% | $15.50 | >30 | no | no | -6.52% | — | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -2.53% | $14.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.36% | +3.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -2.60% | $18.09 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.37% | +7.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -2.36% | $17.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.49% | -1.90% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -1.81% | $19.38 | 7 | no | yes | -6.19% | -0.52% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -1.06% | $24.45 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.83% | -2.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | 0.08% | $25.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.42% | +0.12% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.95% | $29.43 | 5 | yes | yes | -6.66% | -2.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -0.99% | $30.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.41% | +1.09% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.71% | $31.08 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.19% | -1.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -0.91% | $29.62 | 4 | yes | yes | -8.58% | -2.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.91% | $27.36 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +2.70% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -0.36% | $33.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.55% | -1.36% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | -1.03% | $37.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.52% | +0.34% | |
| Q1 | $0.33 | -0.95% | $36.84 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.31% | -0.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | -0.99% | $36.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.61% | -1.32% | |
| Q3 | $0.33 | -0.55% | $34.83 | 8 | no | yes | -2.96% | -0.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.31 | -0.22% | $35.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.22% | +0.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.31 | -1.61% | $35.37 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.91% | -0.93% | |
| Q4 | $0.31 | -0.73% | $32.78 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.17% | +0.38% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with CAG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical CAG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (19 events)
+1.08%
Win rate (19 trades)
89%
Cumulative P&L
+20.52%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-33.91%
Best event
+2.46%
Worst event
-0.55%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
19 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CAG (19)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.95% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.88% | |
| -0.55% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +1.28% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.15% | |
| +1.19% | |
| +1.36% | |
| +1.43% | |
| -0.52% | |
| +2.01% | |
| +1.93% | |
| +2.46% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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